Selection of ground motion prediction equations for the global earthquake model

Jonathan P. Stewart, John Douglas, Mohammad Javanbarg, Yousef Bozorgnia, Norman A. Abrahamson, David M. Boore, Kenneth W. Campbell, Elise Delavaud, Mustafa Erdik, Peter J. Stafford

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

80 Citations (Scopus)
429 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. From many available GMPEs, we select those models recommended for use in seismic hazard assessments in the Global Earthquake Model. We present a GMPE selection procedure that evaluates multidimensional ground motion trends (e.g., with respect to magnitude, distance, and structural period), examines functional forms, and evaluates published quantitative tests of GMPE performance against independent data. Our recommendations include: four models, based principally on simulations, for stable continental regions; three empirical models for interface and in-slab subduction zone events; and three empirical models for active shallow crustal regions. To approximately incorporate epistemic uncertainties, the selection process accounts for alternate representations of key GMPE attributes, such as the rate of distance attenuation, which are defensible from available data. Recommended models for each domain will change over time as additional GMPEs are developed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)19-45
Number of pages27
JournalEarthquake Spectra
Volume31
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2015

Keywords

  • ground motion prediction equations
  • earthquake source
  • ground motion trends
  • active shallow crustal regions

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