Abstract
In this paper we extend the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model from a deterministic framework to a stochastic one and formulate it as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the number of infectious individuals $I(t)$. We then prove that this SDE has a unique global positive solution $I(t)$ and establish conditions for extinction and persistence of $I(t)$. We discuss perturbation by stochastic noise. In the case of persistence we show the existence of a stationary distribution and derive expressions for its mean and variance. The results are illustrated by computer simulations, including two examples based on real-life diseases.
Original language | English |
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Publication status | Unpublished - 2012 |
Event | Workshop on Stochastic Modelling in Ecosystems - Glasgow, United Kingdom Duration: 11 Jun 2012 → 12 Jun 2012 |
Conference
Conference | Workshop on Stochastic Modelling in Ecosystems |
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Country/Territory | United Kingdom |
City | Glasgow |
Period | 11/06/12 → 12/06/12 |
Keywords
- Susceptible-infected-susceptible model
- pneumococcus
- gonorrhea
- stationary distribution
- basic reproduction number
- persistence
- extinction
- stochastic differential equations
- Brownian motion