Scottish Labour Market Trends [May 2018]

Fraser of Allander Institute, Scottish Centre for Employment Research

    Research output: Book/ReportOther report

    Abstract

    The Scottish labour market has been relatively robust in recent times with high employment and low unemployment. In the latest data, we are seeing these trends continuing with further increases in employment and decreases in unemployment. There are 10,000 more people in work than a year ago; 2,000 fewer people in unemployment than a year ago; and 19,000 fewer people economically inactive than a year ago. The quarterly unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.3% over the period Jan-Mar, with the employment rate rising by 0.3% points over the same 3 months. Scotland now has an unemployment rate slightly above that of the UK, but with an employment rate which is nearly a whole percentage point lower. Tying these together is that Scotland has a higher rate of economic inactivity (21.9%) than the UK as a whole (21.0%). Although as we have discussed before, such small variations are not statistically significant. One of the most notable trends in the Scottish labour market over the past two years has been the substantial falls in youth (16-24 year old) unemployment. In the most recent data released today – covering 2017– youth unemployment is at a record low of 9.2%. This is less than half what it was five years ago. In the same period in 2012, youth unemployment was 20.5%. Encouragingly these declines have been seen in both the male and female statistics with male youth unemployment at a record low of 10.1%, down from 23.1% in 2012. As always, these headline numbers give us a snapshot of the health of the labour market, but growth remains weak in the Scottish economy. Furthermore, the latest productivity data show that – even with a bounce back in the final quarter of the year – labour productivity fell 1.9% in real terms in 2017. This does not bode particularly well for growth in take home pay. Official forecasts from the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) are for this to continue for the foreseeable future. We remain slightly more optimistic than the SFC believing that activity will pick-up this year. But there remains significant uncertainty around the future outlook for the economy – so the next few months promise to be an interesting time for Scottish labour market data.
    LanguageEnglish
    Place of PublicationGlasgow
    PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
    Number of pages10
    Publication statusPublished - 22 May 2018

    Publication series

    NameScottish Labour Market Trends
    PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
    No.3
    Volume2
    ISSN (Electronic)2399-7540

    Fingerprint

    Labour market
    Unemployment
    Youth unemployment
    Employment rate
    Unemployment rate
    Scotland
    Fiscal
    Economics
    Market data
    Health
    Statistics
    Labour productivity
    Productivity
    Tying
    Uncertainty

    Keywords

    • labour market trends
    • Scotland
    • employment
    • unemployment patterns
    • labour productivity
    • GDP

    Cite this

    Fraser of Allander Institute, & Scottish Centre for Employment Research (2018). Scottish Labour Market Trends [May 2018]. (Scottish Labour Market Trends; Vol. 2, No. 3). Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.
    Fraser of Allander Institute ; Scottish Centre for Employment Research. / Scottish Labour Market Trends [May 2018]. Glasgow : University of Strathclyde, 2018. 10 p. (Scottish Labour Market Trends; 3).
    @book{d4864d342c6d4a2fa02f097f8f58150b,
    title = "Scottish Labour Market Trends [May 2018]",
    abstract = "The Scottish labour market has been relatively robust in recent times with high employment and low unemployment. In the latest data, we are seeing these trends continuing with further increases in employment and decreases in unemployment. There are 10,000 more people in work than a year ago; 2,000 fewer people in unemployment than a year ago; and 19,000 fewer people economically inactive than a year ago. The quarterly unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.3{\%} over the period Jan-Mar, with the employment rate rising by 0.3{\%} points over the same 3 months. Scotland now has an unemployment rate slightly above that of the UK, but with an employment rate which is nearly a whole percentage point lower. Tying these together is that Scotland has a higher rate of economic inactivity (21.9{\%}) than the UK as a whole (21.0{\%}). Although as we have discussed before, such small variations are not statistically significant. One of the most notable trends in the Scottish labour market over the past two years has been the substantial falls in youth (16-24 year old) unemployment. In the most recent data released today – covering 2017– youth unemployment is at a record low of 9.2{\%}. This is less than half what it was five years ago. In the same period in 2012, youth unemployment was 20.5{\%}. Encouragingly these declines have been seen in both the male and female statistics with male youth unemployment at a record low of 10.1{\%}, down from 23.1{\%} in 2012. As always, these headline numbers give us a snapshot of the health of the labour market, but growth remains weak in the Scottish economy. Furthermore, the latest productivity data show that – even with a bounce back in the final quarter of the year – labour productivity fell 1.9{\%} in real terms in 2017. This does not bode particularly well for growth in take home pay. Official forecasts from the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) are for this to continue for the foreseeable future. We remain slightly more optimistic than the SFC believing that activity will pick-up this year. But there remains significant uncertainty around the future outlook for the economy – so the next few months promise to be an interesting time for Scottish labour market data.",
    keywords = "labour market trends, Scotland, employment, unemployment patterns, labour productivity, GDP",
    author = "{Fraser of Allander Institute} and {Scottish Centre for Employment Research}",
    note = "Quarterly report, Scottish Labour Market Trends (ISSN: 2399-7540) Vol.2 No.3, authored by the Fraser of Allander Institute and the Scottish Centre for Employment Research.",
    year = "2018",
    month = "5",
    day = "22",
    language = "English",
    series = "Scottish Labour Market Trends",
    publisher = "University of Strathclyde",
    number = "3",

    }

    Fraser of Allander Institute & Scottish Centre for Employment Research 2018, Scottish Labour Market Trends [May 2018]. Scottish Labour Market Trends, no. 3, vol. 2, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

    Scottish Labour Market Trends [May 2018]. / Fraser of Allander Institute; Scottish Centre for Employment Research.

    Glasgow : University of Strathclyde, 2018. 10 p. (Scottish Labour Market Trends; Vol. 2, No. 3).

    Research output: Book/ReportOther report

    TY - BOOK

    T1 - Scottish Labour Market Trends [May 2018]

    AU - Fraser of Allander Institute

    AU - Scottish Centre for Employment Research

    N1 - Quarterly report, Scottish Labour Market Trends (ISSN: 2399-7540) Vol.2 No.3, authored by the Fraser of Allander Institute and the Scottish Centre for Employment Research.

    PY - 2018/5/22

    Y1 - 2018/5/22

    N2 - The Scottish labour market has been relatively robust in recent times with high employment and low unemployment. In the latest data, we are seeing these trends continuing with further increases in employment and decreases in unemployment. There are 10,000 more people in work than a year ago; 2,000 fewer people in unemployment than a year ago; and 19,000 fewer people economically inactive than a year ago. The quarterly unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.3% over the period Jan-Mar, with the employment rate rising by 0.3% points over the same 3 months. Scotland now has an unemployment rate slightly above that of the UK, but with an employment rate which is nearly a whole percentage point lower. Tying these together is that Scotland has a higher rate of economic inactivity (21.9%) than the UK as a whole (21.0%). Although as we have discussed before, such small variations are not statistically significant. One of the most notable trends in the Scottish labour market over the past two years has been the substantial falls in youth (16-24 year old) unemployment. In the most recent data released today – covering 2017– youth unemployment is at a record low of 9.2%. This is less than half what it was five years ago. In the same period in 2012, youth unemployment was 20.5%. Encouragingly these declines have been seen in both the male and female statistics with male youth unemployment at a record low of 10.1%, down from 23.1% in 2012. As always, these headline numbers give us a snapshot of the health of the labour market, but growth remains weak in the Scottish economy. Furthermore, the latest productivity data show that – even with a bounce back in the final quarter of the year – labour productivity fell 1.9% in real terms in 2017. This does not bode particularly well for growth in take home pay. Official forecasts from the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) are for this to continue for the foreseeable future. We remain slightly more optimistic than the SFC believing that activity will pick-up this year. But there remains significant uncertainty around the future outlook for the economy – so the next few months promise to be an interesting time for Scottish labour market data.

    AB - The Scottish labour market has been relatively robust in recent times with high employment and low unemployment. In the latest data, we are seeing these trends continuing with further increases in employment and decreases in unemployment. There are 10,000 more people in work than a year ago; 2,000 fewer people in unemployment than a year ago; and 19,000 fewer people economically inactive than a year ago. The quarterly unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.3% over the period Jan-Mar, with the employment rate rising by 0.3% points over the same 3 months. Scotland now has an unemployment rate slightly above that of the UK, but with an employment rate which is nearly a whole percentage point lower. Tying these together is that Scotland has a higher rate of economic inactivity (21.9%) than the UK as a whole (21.0%). Although as we have discussed before, such small variations are not statistically significant. One of the most notable trends in the Scottish labour market over the past two years has been the substantial falls in youth (16-24 year old) unemployment. In the most recent data released today – covering 2017– youth unemployment is at a record low of 9.2%. This is less than half what it was five years ago. In the same period in 2012, youth unemployment was 20.5%. Encouragingly these declines have been seen in both the male and female statistics with male youth unemployment at a record low of 10.1%, down from 23.1% in 2012. As always, these headline numbers give us a snapshot of the health of the labour market, but growth remains weak in the Scottish economy. Furthermore, the latest productivity data show that – even with a bounce back in the final quarter of the year – labour productivity fell 1.9% in real terms in 2017. This does not bode particularly well for growth in take home pay. Official forecasts from the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) are for this to continue for the foreseeable future. We remain slightly more optimistic than the SFC believing that activity will pick-up this year. But there remains significant uncertainty around the future outlook for the economy – so the next few months promise to be an interesting time for Scottish labour market data.

    KW - labour market trends

    KW - Scotland

    KW - employment

    KW - unemployment patterns

    KW - labour productivity

    KW - GDP

    UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/business/economics/fraserofallanderinstitute/

    M3 - Other report

    T3 - Scottish Labour Market Trends

    BT - Scottish Labour Market Trends [May 2018]

    PB - University of Strathclyde

    CY - Glasgow

    ER -

    Fraser of Allander Institute, Scottish Centre for Employment Research. Scottish Labour Market Trends [May 2018]. Glasgow: University of Strathclyde, 2018. 10 p. (Scottish Labour Market Trends; 3).