Scenario Thinking: A Historical Evolution of Strategic Foresight

R. Bradley Mackay, Peter McKiernan

Research output: Book/ReportBook

Abstract

This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.
LanguageEnglish
Place of PublicationCambridge
Number of pages75
StatePublished - 30 Jun 2018

Fingerprint

Scenarios
Strategic foresight
Scenario planning
Heuristics
Logic
Strategic management
Civilization
Schools of thought
Cognitive bias
Strategic decision making
Usefulness
Archival research
Foresight
Public policy
Uncertainty
Decoupling
Methodology

Keywords

  • scenario planning
  • cognitive reasoning
  • scenario thinking

Cite this

@book{6ec3431a394d4fdc9a8dc6dbdaf8f87d,
title = "Scenario Thinking: A Historical Evolution of Strategic Foresight",
abstract = "This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.",
keywords = "scenario planning, cognitive reasoning, scenario thinking",
author = "Mackay, {R. Bradley} and Peter McKiernan",
year = "2018",
month = "6",
day = "30",
language = "English",
isbn = "9781108469005",

}

Scenario Thinking : A Historical Evolution of Strategic Foresight. / Mackay, R. Bradley; McKiernan, Peter.

Cambridge, 2018. 75 p.

Research output: Book/ReportBook

TY - BOOK

T1 - Scenario Thinking

T2 - A Historical Evolution of Strategic Foresight

AU - Mackay,R. Bradley

AU - McKiernan,Peter

PY - 2018/6/30

Y1 - 2018/6/30

N2 - This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.

AB - This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.

KW - scenario planning

KW - cognitive reasoning

KW - scenario thinking

UR - http://admin.cambridge.org/academic/subjects/management/strategic-management/scenario-thinking-historical-evolution-strategic-foresight

M3 - Book

SN - 9781108469005

BT - Scenario Thinking

CY - Cambridge

ER -