Scenario planning: teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

Scenario Planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices in the teaching of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences micro-external or industrial environmental as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper provides a review of the most dominant theories on scenario planning process, demonstrates the need to consider PEU theory within scenario planning and presents how this can be done. The scope of this paper is to enhance the scenario planning process as a tool taught for Strategy Development. A case vignette is developed based on published scenarios to demonstrate the potential utilisation of the proposed process.
LanguageEnglish
Place of PublicationBirmingham (UK)
Number of pages25
VolumeRP0919
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2009

Publication series

NameAston Business School research papers

Fingerprint

Teaching
Planning
Uncertainty
Macros

Keywords

  • teaching
  • scenario planning
  • strategy development
  • perceived environmental uncertainty
  • case study

Cite this

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Scenario planning : teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development. / Tapinos, Efstathios.

Birmingham (UK), 2009. (Aston Business School research papers).

Research output: Working paper

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AB - Scenario Planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices in the teaching of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences micro-external or industrial environmental as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper provides a review of the most dominant theories on scenario planning process, demonstrates the need to consider PEU theory within scenario planning and presents how this can be done. The scope of this paper is to enhance the scenario planning process as a tool taught for Strategy Development. A case vignette is developed based on published scenarios to demonstrate the potential utilisation of the proposed process.

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