Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Joao Morim; Mark Hemer; Xiaolan L. Wang; Nick Cartwright; Claire Trenham; Alvaro Semedo; Ian Young; Lucy Bricheno; Paula Camus; Mercè Casas-Prat; Li Erikson; Lorenzo Mentaschi; Nobuhito Mori; Tomoya Shimura; Ben Timmermans; Ole Aarnes; Øyvind Breivik; Arno Behrens; Mikhail Dobrynin; Melisa Menendez; Joanna Staneva; Michael Wehner; Judith Wolf; Bahareh Kamranzad; Adrean Webb; Justin Stopa; Fernando Andutta

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5

Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Joao Morim^*, Mark Hemer, Xiaolan L. Wang, Nick Cartwright, Claire Trenham, Alvaro Semedo, Ian Young, Lucy Bricheno, Paula Camus, Mercè Casas-Prat, Li Erikson, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Nobuhito Mori, Tomoya Shimura, Ben Timmermans, Ole Aarnes, Øyvind Breivik, Arno Behrens, Mikhail Dobrynin, Melisa MenendezJoanna Staneva, Michael Wehner, Judith Wolf, Bahareh Kamranzad, Adrean Webb, Justin Stopa, Fernando Andutta

^*Corresponding author for this work

Civil And Environmental Engineering

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Abstract

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	711-718
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	9
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2019

Keywords

climate change
climate-change impacts
ocean sciences
physical oceanography
projection and prediction
climate projections

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5

Morim-etal-NCC2019-Robustness-uncertainties-global-multivariate-wind-wave-climate-projectionsAccepted author manuscript, 3.67 MB

Cite this

Morim, J., Hemer, M., Wang, X. L., Cartwright, N., Trenham, C., Semedo, A., Young, I., Bricheno, L., Camus, P., Casas-Prat, M., Erikson, L., Mentaschi, L., Mori, N., Shimura, T., Timmermans, B., Aarnes, O., Breivik, Ø., Behrens, A., Dobrynin, M., ... Andutta, F. (2019). Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections. Nature Climate Change, 9(9), 711-718. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5

@article{ea0af9f1016e41f287c9ce066b754bab,

title = "Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections",

abstract = "Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world{\textquoteright}s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.",

keywords = "climate change, climate-change impacts, ocean sciences, physical oceanography, projection and prediction, climate projections",

author = "Joao Morim and Mark Hemer and Wang, {Xiaolan L.} and Nick Cartwright and Claire Trenham and Alvaro Semedo and Ian Young and Lucy Bricheno and Paula Camus and Merc{\`e} Casas-Prat and Li Erikson and Lorenzo Mentaschi and Nobuhito Mori and Tomoya Shimura and Ben Timmermans and Ole Aarnes and {\O}yvind Breivik and Arno Behrens and Mikhail Dobrynin and Melisa Menendez and Joanna Staneva and Michael Wehner and Judith Wolf and Bahareh Kamranzad and Adrean Webb and Justin Stopa and Fernando Andutta",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Morim, J., Hemer, M., Wang, X.L. et al. Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 711–718 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5 ",

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doi = "10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5",

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Morim, J, Hemer, M, Wang, XL, Cartwright, N, Trenham, C, Semedo, A, Young, I, Bricheno, L, Camus, P, Casas-Prat, M, Erikson, L, Mentaschi, L, Mori, N, Shimura, T, Timmermans, B, Aarnes, O, Breivik, Ø, Behrens, A, Dobrynin, M, Menendez, M, Staneva, J, Wehner, M, Wolf, J, Kamranzad, B, Webb, A, Stopa, J & Andutta, F 2019, 'Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections', Nature Climate Change, vol. 9, no. 9, pp. 711-718. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5

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AU - Morim, Joao

AU - Hemer, Mark

AU - Wang, Xiaolan L.

AU - Cartwright, Nick

AU - Trenham, Claire

AU - Semedo, Alvaro

AU - Young, Ian

AU - Bricheno, Lucy

AU - Camus, Paula

AU - Casas-Prat, Mercè

AU - Erikson, Li

AU - Mentaschi, Lorenzo

AU - Mori, Nobuhito

AU - Shimura, Tomoya

AU - Timmermans, Ben

AU - Aarnes, Ole

AU - Breivik, Øyvind

AU - Behrens, Arno

AU - Dobrynin, Mikhail

AU - Menendez, Melisa

AU - Staneva, Joanna

AU - Wehner, Michael

AU - Wolf, Judith

AU - Kamranzad, Bahareh

AU - Webb, Adrean

AU - Stopa, Justin

AU - Andutta, Fernando

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Morim, J., Hemer, M., Wang, X.L. et al. Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 711–718 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5

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Y1 - 2019/9/1

N2 - Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

AB - Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

KW - climate change

KW - climate-change impacts

KW - ocean sciences

KW - physical oceanography

KW - projection and prediction

KW - climate projections

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UR - https://core.ac.uk/works/18649711

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DO - 10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5

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AN - SCOPUS:85071132024

SN - 1758-678X

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SP - 711

EP - 718

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 9

ER -

Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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Projection of wave climate and wave energy due to global warming

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Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

Projection of wave climate and wave energy due to global warming

Cite this