Abstract
In the real world, a significant challenge faced in designing critical systems is the lack of available data. This results in a large degree of uncertainty and the need for uncertainty quantification tools so as to make risk-informed decisions. The NASA-Langley UQ Challenge 2019 seeks to provide such setting, requiring different discipline-independent approaches to address typical tasks required for the design of critical systems.
This paper addresses the NASA-Langley UQ Challenge by proposing 4 key techniques to provide the solution to the challenge: (1) a distribution-free Bayesian model updating framework for the calibration of the uncertainty model; (2) an adaptive pinching approach to analyse and rank the relative sensitivity of the epistemic parameters; (3) the probability bounds analysis to estimate failure probabilities; and (4) a Non-intrusive Stochastic Simulation approach to identify an optimal design point.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 108522 |
Number of pages | 58 |
Journal | Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing |
Volume | 167 |
Early online date | 1 Nov 2021 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 15 Mar 2022 |
Keywords
- model class selection
- non-intrusive imprecise stochastic simulation
- robust optimization
- sensitivity analysis
- staircase density function
- uncertainty quantification