Robust design optimisation of dynamical space systems

In this paper we present a novel approach to the optimisation of complex systems affected by epistemic uncertainty when system and uncertainty evolve dynamically with time; we propose a new modelling approach that uses Evidence Theory to capture epistemic uncertainty A system is considered which is affected by the time during the operational life (failure rate, performance degradation, function degradation, etc.). The goal is to obtain a resilient design: robust with respect to performance variability and reliable against possible partial failures of one or more components. We propose to enhance the Evidence Network Model (ENM) with time-dependent reliability functions and decompose the problem into subproblems of smaller complexity. Through this decomposition uncertainty quantification of complex systems becomes affordable for a range of real-world applications. The method is here applied to a simple resource allocation problem where the goal is to optimally position subsystems within a spacecraft