Risk reduction prioritization using decision analysis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The ALARP principle is applied in many areas to regulate the tolerable level of risk. Usually the principle is operationalized by assigning a value per fatality. A cost-benefit analysis is used to trade the expected value of lives saved with the costs of technical measures required to reduce risks. In sectors in which risks have been reduced over a period of years, it is difficult to pinpoint those areas in which further risk reduction might be sought. In this article we show that many different risk reduction mechanisms can be considered simultaneously in a decision analysis framework. Using influence diagrams it is straightforward to build mini-decision analysis models in which competing alternatives addressing the same risk can be compared. The mini-model decision alternatives are assembled into decision strategies representing the best possible combination of alternatives at different cost/benefit ratios. Disynergies between the different alternatives are highlighted through the model. The overall aim is to build a high-level model to explore the sensitivity of risk reduction measures to the value per fatality parameter. This enables decision makers to gain a better understanding of the cost of measures required to obtain a global reduction in risk.
LanguageEnglish
Pages223-236
Number of pages13
JournalRisk Decision and Policy
Volume9
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2004

Fingerprint

Decision Analysis
decision analysis
Prioritization
Decision theory
prioritization
Alternatives
cost-benefit analysis
Costs
cost
Influence Diagrams
Cost-benefit Analysis
Cost benefit analysis
diagram
risk reduction
Decision Model
Expected Value
Sector
Model
decision

Keywords

  • risk reduction
  • decision analysis
  • ALARP principle

Cite this

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Risk reduction prioritization using decision analysis. / Bedford, T.J.; Quigley, J.L.

In: Risk Decision and Policy, Vol. 9, No. 3, 07.2004, p. 223-236.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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