Risk modelling for remote communities: an Inuit-driven Bayesian network approach to enhance search and rescue operations in Arctic Canada

The Canadian Arctic's vast and unforgiving landscape presents unique challenges for Search and Rescue (SAR) operations, particularly in supporting the SAR volunteers in remote Inuit communities who face extreme conditions with limited resources. This study addresses the need for a culturally informed, probabilistic model that can enhance SAR effectiveness in Nunavut and Nunavik by enabling data-driven strategic planning and resource allocation. The paper introduces a novel Bayesian Network (BN) risk model that aims to capture the complexities involved in the Arctic ground SAR system. The model, developed through extensive community engagement, highlights the interdependencies between environmental conditions, resource availability, and SAR outcomes. By incorporating local knowledge and addressing systemic risks, the BN model offers a quantitative framework for SAR decision-making and policy development, aiming to improve the safety and resilience of Northern communities in the face of climate change and evolving geopolitical challenges. This work contributes to the wider SAR literature by offering a replicable approach for risk assessment and decision-making rooted in community expertise.