Risk analysis of supply: comparative performance and short-term prediction

L. Walls, J. Quigley, M. Parsa, E. Comrie

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

4 Citations (Scopus)
62 Downloads (Pure)


Managing risk in the supply of inbound parts for the assembly of complex engineering systems is a key activity for manufacturing companies to avoid production delays and disruption. We present novel analysis of empirical data typically available in enterprise resource planning systems. The information generated through such analysis can provide useful information to support decisions to better manage supply risk. For example, identifying suppliers at risk of poor performance under different loadings or relative to peers, and assessing the financial value of investing in learning and developing suppliers. Our analysis is based on new methods developed for robust ranking, valuation of due diligence as well as more established regression modelling principles. We focus upon the ways our methods can be used to support supply risk decisions by showing how they have been applied in an industry case and the implications of our findings to date.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRisk, Reliability and Safety
Subtitle of host publicationInnovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016)
EditorsLesley Walls, Matthew Revie, Tim Bedford
Place of PublicationLondon
ISBN (Electronic)9781315374987
Publication statusPublished - 13 Sept 2016
EventEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference 2016 - University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Duration: 25 Sept 201629 Sept 2016
http://esrel2016.org/ (Link to conference web site)


ConferenceEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference 2016
Abbreviated titleESREL 2016
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
Internet address


  • risk analysis
  • manufacturing
  • enterprise resource planning
  • short-term prediction
  • suppliers
  • supply risk decisions


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