Review of the quarter's economic trends [May 1983]

Frank Kirwan; David Bell; Bob Buchanan; Robert Crawford; Frank Harrigan; Anne Jowett; Lyle Moar; James McGilvray; Iain McNicoll; Noreen O'Donnell; David Simpson; Elizabeth Tait; Jim Walker; Alison Wingfield; Frank Kirwan

Review of the quarter's economic trends [May 1983]

Frank Kirwan, David Bell, Bob Buchanan, Robert Crawford, Frank Harrigan, Anne Jowett, Lyle Moar, James McGilvray, Iain McNicoll, Noreen O'Donnell, David Simpson, Elizabeth Tait, Jim Walker, Alison Wingfield, Frank Kirwan (Editor)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

52 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The one thing this recovery does not lack is confidence. Surveys of business opinion in all the major economies reveal a greater level of optimism amongst the business community than at any time since 1979. But confidence alone is not adequate for a sustained recovery though it certainly helps. As this brief analysis shows, two constraints stand in the way of a worldwide upturn: real interest rates remain high and the response of governments to any acceleration of inflation remains unknown. The downward rigidity of nominal interest rates bears witness to the financial markets' belief that present low levels of inflation are not sustainable, yet if governments react to the expected mild acceleration of inflation in the latter half of this year with the policies of the recent past no significant recovery is likely. Further analysis of UK and world economic data are provided.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1-10
Number of pages	10
Journal	Quarterly Economic Commentary
Volume	8
Issue number	4
Publication status	Published - May 1983

Keywords

UK economic trends
world economic performance
global GDP growth

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

FEC_8_4_1983_Economic_TrendsFinal published version, 737 KB

Cite this

@article{7cd3cbeb6319492ba05bf7c06a0a2a5d,

title = "Review of the quarter's economic trends [May 1983]",

abstract = "The one thing this recovery does not lack is confidence. Surveys of business opinion in all the major economies reveal a greater level of optimism amongst the business community than at any time since 1979. But confidence alone is not adequate for a sustained recovery though it certainly helps. As this brief analysis shows, two constraints stand in the way of a worldwide upturn: real interest rates remain high and the response of governments to any acceleration of inflation remains unknown. The downward rigidity of nominal interest rates bears witness to the financial markets' belief that present low levels of inflation are not sustainable, yet if governments react to the expected mild acceleration of inflation in the latter half of this year with the policies of the recent past no significant recovery is likely. Further analysis of UK and world economic data are provided.",

keywords = "UK economic trends, world economic performance, global GDP growth",

author = "Frank Kirwan and David Bell and Bob Buchanan and Robert Crawford and Frank Harrigan and Anne Jowett and Lyle Moar and James McGilvray and Iain McNicoll and Noreen O'Donnell and David Simpson and Elizabeth Tait and Jim Walker and Alison Wingfield and Frank Kirwan",

year = "1983",

month = may,

language = "English",

volume = "8",

pages = "1--10",

journal = "Quarterly Economic Commentary",

issn = "0306-7866",

publisher = "University of Strathclyde",

number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Review of the quarter's economic trends [May 1983]

AU - Kirwan, Frank

AU - Bell, David

AU - Buchanan, Bob

AU - Crawford, Robert

AU - Harrigan, Frank

AU - Jowett, Anne

AU - Moar, Lyle

AU - McGilvray, James

AU - McNicoll, Iain

AU - O'Donnell, Noreen

AU - Simpson, David

AU - Tait, Elizabeth

AU - Walker, Jim

AU - Wingfield, Alison

A2 - Kirwan, Frank

PY - 1983/5

Y1 - 1983/5

N2 - The one thing this recovery does not lack is confidence. Surveys of business opinion in all the major economies reveal a greater level of optimism amongst the business community than at any time since 1979. But confidence alone is not adequate for a sustained recovery though it certainly helps. As this brief analysis shows, two constraints stand in the way of a worldwide upturn: real interest rates remain high and the response of governments to any acceleration of inflation remains unknown. The downward rigidity of nominal interest rates bears witness to the financial markets' belief that present low levels of inflation are not sustainable, yet if governments react to the expected mild acceleration of inflation in the latter half of this year with the policies of the recent past no significant recovery is likely. Further analysis of UK and world economic data are provided.

AB - The one thing this recovery does not lack is confidence. Surveys of business opinion in all the major economies reveal a greater level of optimism amongst the business community than at any time since 1979. But confidence alone is not adequate for a sustained recovery though it certainly helps. As this brief analysis shows, two constraints stand in the way of a worldwide upturn: real interest rates remain high and the response of governments to any acceleration of inflation remains unknown. The downward rigidity of nominal interest rates bears witness to the financial markets' belief that present low levels of inflation are not sustainable, yet if governments react to the expected mild acceleration of inflation in the latter half of this year with the policies of the recent past no significant recovery is likely. Further analysis of UK and world economic data are provided.

KW - UK economic trends

KW - world economic performance

KW - global GDP growth

UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/frasercommentary/

UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/fraser/

M3 - Article

SN - 0306-7866

VL - 8

SP - 1

EP - 10

JO - Quarterly Economic Commentary

JF - Quarterly Economic Commentary

IS - 4

ER -

Review of the quarter's economic trends [May 1983]

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this