Residential energy efficiency in times – analysis of modelling approaches and impacts on energy policy

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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Abstract

The TIMES energy system model has been used for informing energy and climate change policies in several countries and regions around the world. The type and scope of the studies varies, but many works consider (at least briefly) energy efficiency in their findings. However, very few include explicit energy efficiency scenarios and/or direct analysis of energy efficiency improvements. The studies that consider explicitly energy efficiency scenarios (in some cases in combination with other type of scenarios such as emission reduction targets) show significant differences on the modelling approach taken, potentially affecting the results and the impact policy decisions. Moreover, a direct comparison between energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES has not been developed yet.
The work developed in this paper aims to provide insight on this issue, analysing the implications of different energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES, and discussing best practices on informing energy efficiency policy. Three types of residential energy efficiency scenarios are analysed using the UK TIMES model, all of them with the objective of reducing 10% of energy consumption on residential heating. Results show that these energy efficiency scenarios, which are in theory equivalent, produced different results, suggesting that the modelling approach taken can significantly impact the outcomes of the model. Also, not all energy efficiency scenarios performed as expected. In one of the scenarios, other user constraints (which are common to all the analysed scenarios) limited the amount of conservation technologies available, so the expected energy savings were lower than in other cases. Therefore, the outcomes obtained show the importance of not solely relying on a particular scenario or model for policy analysis, as this might lead to partial views or suboptimal solutions.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 23 Feb 2018
Event41st IAEE International Conference - MartiniPlaza, Groningen, Netherlands
Duration: 10 Jun 201813 Jun 2018
http://iaee2018.com/

Conference

Conference41st IAEE International Conference
Abbreviated titleIAEE 2018
CountryNetherlands
CityGroningen
Period10/06/1813/06/18
Internet address

Fingerprint

Energy policy
Energy efficiency
Climate change
Conservation
Energy conservation
Energy utilization
Heating

Keywords

  • Energy efficiency
  • energy Policy
  • energy system models
  • TIMES

Cite this

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title = "Residential energy efficiency in times – analysis of modelling approaches and impacts on energy policy",
abstract = "The TIMES energy system model has been used for informing energy and climate change policies in several countries and regions around the world. The type and scope of the studies varies, but many works consider (at least briefly) energy efficiency in their findings. However, very few include explicit energy efficiency scenarios and/or direct analysis of energy efficiency improvements. The studies that consider explicitly energy efficiency scenarios (in some cases in combination with other type of scenarios such as emission reduction targets) show significant differences on the modelling approach taken, potentially affecting the results and the impact policy decisions. Moreover, a direct comparison between energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES has not been developed yet.The work developed in this paper aims to provide insight on this issue, analysing the implications of different energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES, and discussing best practices on informing energy efficiency policy. Three types of residential energy efficiency scenarios are analysed using the UK TIMES model, all of them with the objective of reducing 10{\%} of energy consumption on residential heating. Results show that these energy efficiency scenarios, which are in theory equivalent, produced different results, suggesting that the modelling approach taken can significantly impact the outcomes of the model. Also, not all energy efficiency scenarios performed as expected. In one of the scenarios, other user constraints (which are common to all the analysed scenarios) limited the amount of conservation technologies available, so the expected energy savings were lower than in other cases. Therefore, the outcomes obtained show the importance of not solely relying on a particular scenario or model for policy analysis, as this might lead to partial views or suboptimal solutions.",
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Calvillo Munoz, C, Turner, K, Bell, K & McGregor, P 2018, 'Residential energy efficiency in times – analysis of modelling approaches and impacts on energy policy' Paper presented at 41st IAEE International Conference, Groningen, Netherlands, 10/06/18 - 13/06/18, .

Residential energy efficiency in times – analysis of modelling approaches and impacts on energy policy. / Calvillo Munoz, Christian; Turner, Karen; Bell, Keith; McGregor, Peter.

2018. Paper presented at 41st IAEE International Conference, Groningen, Netherlands.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

TY - CONF

T1 - Residential energy efficiency in times – analysis of modelling approaches and impacts on energy policy

AU - Calvillo Munoz, Christian

AU - Turner, Karen

AU - Bell, Keith

AU - McGregor, Peter

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N2 - The TIMES energy system model has been used for informing energy and climate change policies in several countries and regions around the world. The type and scope of the studies varies, but many works consider (at least briefly) energy efficiency in their findings. However, very few include explicit energy efficiency scenarios and/or direct analysis of energy efficiency improvements. The studies that consider explicitly energy efficiency scenarios (in some cases in combination with other type of scenarios such as emission reduction targets) show significant differences on the modelling approach taken, potentially affecting the results and the impact policy decisions. Moreover, a direct comparison between energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES has not been developed yet.The work developed in this paper aims to provide insight on this issue, analysing the implications of different energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES, and discussing best practices on informing energy efficiency policy. Three types of residential energy efficiency scenarios are analysed using the UK TIMES model, all of them with the objective of reducing 10% of energy consumption on residential heating. Results show that these energy efficiency scenarios, which are in theory equivalent, produced different results, suggesting that the modelling approach taken can significantly impact the outcomes of the model. Also, not all energy efficiency scenarios performed as expected. In one of the scenarios, other user constraints (which are common to all the analysed scenarios) limited the amount of conservation technologies available, so the expected energy savings were lower than in other cases. Therefore, the outcomes obtained show the importance of not solely relying on a particular scenario or model for policy analysis, as this might lead to partial views or suboptimal solutions.

AB - The TIMES energy system model has been used for informing energy and climate change policies in several countries and regions around the world. The type and scope of the studies varies, but many works consider (at least briefly) energy efficiency in their findings. However, very few include explicit energy efficiency scenarios and/or direct analysis of energy efficiency improvements. The studies that consider explicitly energy efficiency scenarios (in some cases in combination with other type of scenarios such as emission reduction targets) show significant differences on the modelling approach taken, potentially affecting the results and the impact policy decisions. Moreover, a direct comparison between energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES has not been developed yet.The work developed in this paper aims to provide insight on this issue, analysing the implications of different energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES, and discussing best practices on informing energy efficiency policy. Three types of residential energy efficiency scenarios are analysed using the UK TIMES model, all of them with the objective of reducing 10% of energy consumption on residential heating. Results show that these energy efficiency scenarios, which are in theory equivalent, produced different results, suggesting that the modelling approach taken can significantly impact the outcomes of the model. Also, not all energy efficiency scenarios performed as expected. In one of the scenarios, other user constraints (which are common to all the analysed scenarios) limited the amount of conservation technologies available, so the expected energy savings were lower than in other cases. Therefore, the outcomes obtained show the importance of not solely relying on a particular scenario or model for policy analysis, as this might lead to partial views or suboptimal solutions.

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KW - energy Policy

KW - energy system models

KW - TIMES

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