Reliability analysis of flood embankments taking into account a stochastic distribution of hydraulic loading

Alessia Amabile, Manoel P. Cordão-Neto, Fabio De Polo, Alessandro Tarantino

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Flooding is a worldwide phenomenon. Over the last few decades the world has experienced a rising number of devastating flood events and the trend in such natural disasters is increasing. Furthermore, escalations in both the probability and magnitude of flood hazards are expected as a result of climate change. Flood defence embankments are one of the major flood defence measures and reliability assessment for these structures is therefore a very important process. Routine hydro-mechanical models for the stability of flood embankments are based on the assumptions of steady-state through-flow and zero pore-pressures above the phreatic surface, i.e. negative capillary pressure (suction) is ignored. Despite common belief, these assumptions may not always lead to conservative design. In addition, hydraulic loading is stochastic in nature and flood embankment stability should therefore be assessed in probabilistic terms. This cannot be accommodated by steady-state flow models. The paper presents an approach for reliability analysis of flood embankment taking into account the transient water through-flow. The factor of safety of the embankment is assessed in probabilistic terms based on a stochastic distribution for the hydraulic loading. Two different probabilistic approaches are tested to compare and validate the results.

Fingerprint

reliability analysis
Embankments
Reliability analysis
embankment
Hydraulics
hydraulics
Capillarity
capillary pressure
Pore pressure
natural disaster
distribution
Climate change
suction
Disasters
pore pressure
Hazards
flooding
hazard
safety
climate change

Keywords

  • flooding
  • natural disasters
  • flood defense

Cite this

@article{6b003e43097e436f9f0c43b8dc9cae37,
title = "Reliability analysis of flood embankments taking into account a stochastic distribution of hydraulic loading",
abstract = "Flooding is a worldwide phenomenon. Over the last few decades the world has experienced a rising number of devastating flood events and the trend in such natural disasters is increasing. Furthermore, escalations in both the probability and magnitude of flood hazards are expected as a result of climate change. Flood defence embankments are one of the major flood defence measures and reliability assessment for these structures is therefore a very important process. Routine hydro-mechanical models for the stability of flood embankments are based on the assumptions of steady-state through-flow and zero pore-pressures above the phreatic surface, i.e. negative capillary pressure (suction) is ignored. Despite common belief, these assumptions may not always lead to conservative design. In addition, hydraulic loading is stochastic in nature and flood embankment stability should therefore be assessed in probabilistic terms. This cannot be accommodated by steady-state flow models. The paper presents an approach for reliability analysis of flood embankment taking into account the transient water through-flow. The factor of safety of the embankment is assessed in probabilistic terms based on a stochastic distribution for the hydraulic loading. Two different probabilistic approaches are tested to compare and validate the results.",
keywords = "flooding, natural disasters, flood defense",
author = "Alessia Amabile and Cord{\~a}o-Neto, {Manoel P.} and Polo, {Fabio De} and Alessandro Tarantino",
year = "2016",
month = "9",
day = "12",
doi = "10.1051/e3sconf/20160919005",
language = "English",
volume = "9",
journal = "E3S Web of Conferences",
issn = "2267-1242",

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Reliability analysis of flood embankments taking into account a stochastic distribution of hydraulic loading. / Amabile, Alessia; Cordão-Neto, Manoel P.; Polo, Fabio De; Tarantino, Alessandro.

In: E3S Web of Conferences, Vol. 9, 12.09.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Reliability analysis of flood embankments taking into account a stochastic distribution of hydraulic loading

AU - Amabile, Alessia

AU - Cordão-Neto, Manoel P.

AU - Polo, Fabio De

AU - Tarantino, Alessandro

PY - 2016/9/12

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N2 - Flooding is a worldwide phenomenon. Over the last few decades the world has experienced a rising number of devastating flood events and the trend in such natural disasters is increasing. Furthermore, escalations in both the probability and magnitude of flood hazards are expected as a result of climate change. Flood defence embankments are one of the major flood defence measures and reliability assessment for these structures is therefore a very important process. Routine hydro-mechanical models for the stability of flood embankments are based on the assumptions of steady-state through-flow and zero pore-pressures above the phreatic surface, i.e. negative capillary pressure (suction) is ignored. Despite common belief, these assumptions may not always lead to conservative design. In addition, hydraulic loading is stochastic in nature and flood embankment stability should therefore be assessed in probabilistic terms. This cannot be accommodated by steady-state flow models. The paper presents an approach for reliability analysis of flood embankment taking into account the transient water through-flow. The factor of safety of the embankment is assessed in probabilistic terms based on a stochastic distribution for the hydraulic loading. Two different probabilistic approaches are tested to compare and validate the results.

AB - Flooding is a worldwide phenomenon. Over the last few decades the world has experienced a rising number of devastating flood events and the trend in such natural disasters is increasing. Furthermore, escalations in both the probability and magnitude of flood hazards are expected as a result of climate change. Flood defence embankments are one of the major flood defence measures and reliability assessment for these structures is therefore a very important process. Routine hydro-mechanical models for the stability of flood embankments are based on the assumptions of steady-state through-flow and zero pore-pressures above the phreatic surface, i.e. negative capillary pressure (suction) is ignored. Despite common belief, these assumptions may not always lead to conservative design. In addition, hydraulic loading is stochastic in nature and flood embankment stability should therefore be assessed in probabilistic terms. This cannot be accommodated by steady-state flow models. The paper presents an approach for reliability analysis of flood embankment taking into account the transient water through-flow. The factor of safety of the embankment is assessed in probabilistic terms based on a stochastic distribution for the hydraulic loading. Two different probabilistic approaches are tested to compare and validate the results.

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