Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: more timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970

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Abstract

Output growth estimates for the regions of the UK are currently published at the annual frequency only, released with a long delay and offer limited historical coverage. To improve the regional database this paper develops a mixed-frequency multivariate model and uses it to produce consistent estimates of quarterly regional output growth dating back to 1970. We describe how these estimates are updated and evaluated on an ongoing, quarterly basis to publish online (at www.escoe.ac.uk/ regionalnowcasting) more timely regional growth estimates. We illustrate how the new quarterly data can contribute to our historical understanding of business cycle dynamics and connectedness between regions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)176-197
Number of pages22
JournalJournal of Applied Econometrics
Volume35
Issue number2
Early online date17 Dec 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Mar 2020

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Keywords

  • regional data
  • mixed frequency
  • Nowcasting
  • real-time data
  • vector auto-regression

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