Realising transition pathways for a more electric, low carbon energy system in the UK: challenges, insights and opportunities

Jason Chilvers, Timothy J Foxon, Stuart Galloway, Geoffrey P. Hammond, David Infield, Matthew Leach, Peter JG Pearson, Neil Strachan, Goran Strbac, Murray Thomson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The United Kingdom (UK) has placed itself on a transition towards a low carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its ‘greenhouse gas’ (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, sociotechnical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules (MR), Central Co-ordination (CC) and Thousand Flowers (TF); each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy 'trilemma', i.e., the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility, social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system 'actors' (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response (DSR) was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in DSR for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and techno-economic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a ‘life-cycle’ basis to determine the GHG emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here the challenges and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the UK are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers, and other stakeholders.
LanguageEnglish
Number of pages38
JournalProceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy
Early online date26 Mar 2017
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 26 Mar 2017

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Keywords

  • transition pathways
  • whole systems analysis
  • low-carbon technologies
  • interdisciplinarity
  • technology assessment
  • historical insights
  • demand side response
  • electricity network modelling
  • energy and environmental appraisa
  • techno-economic modelling
  • socio-technical systems
  • United Kindom

Cite this

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title = "Realising transition pathways for a more electric, low carbon energy system in the UK: challenges, insights and opportunities",
abstract = "The United Kingdom (UK) has placed itself on a transition towards a low carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its ‘greenhouse gas’ (GHG) emissions by 80{\%} by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, sociotechnical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules (MR), Central Co-ordination (CC) and Thousand Flowers (TF); each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy 'trilemma', i.e., the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility, social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system 'actors' (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response (DSR) was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in DSR for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and techno-economic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a ‘life-cycle’ basis to determine the GHG emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here the challenges and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the UK are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers, and other stakeholders.",
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Realising transition pathways for a more electric, low carbon energy system in the UK : challenges, insights and opportunities. / Chilvers, Jason; Foxon, Timothy J; Galloway, Stuart; Hammond, Geoffrey P.; Infield, David; Leach, Matthew; Pearson, Peter JG; Strachan, Neil; Strbac, Goran; Thomson, Murray.

In: Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy , 26.03.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T2 - Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy

AU - Chilvers, Jason

AU - Foxon, Timothy J

AU - Galloway, Stuart

AU - Hammond, Geoffrey P.

AU - Infield, David

AU - Leach, Matthew

AU - Pearson, Peter JG

AU - Strachan, Neil

AU - Strbac, Goran

AU - Thomson, Murray

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N2 - The United Kingdom (UK) has placed itself on a transition towards a low carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its ‘greenhouse gas’ (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, sociotechnical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules (MR), Central Co-ordination (CC) and Thousand Flowers (TF); each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy 'trilemma', i.e., the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility, social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system 'actors' (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response (DSR) was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in DSR for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and techno-economic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a ‘life-cycle’ basis to determine the GHG emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here the challenges and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the UK are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers, and other stakeholders.

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