Quantile combination for the EEM Wind Power Forecasting Competition

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Abstract

Combining forecasts is an established strategy for improving predictions and is employed here to produce probabilistic forecasts of regional wind power production in Sweden, finishing in second place in the EEM20 Wind Power Forecasting Competition. We combine quantile forecasts from two models with different characteristics: a ‘discrete’ tree-based model and ‘smooth’ generalised additive model. Quantiles are combined via linear weighting and the resulting combination is superior than both constituent forecasts in all four regions considered.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages6
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 16 Sep 2020
Event17th International Conference on the European Energy Market -
Duration: 16 Sep 202018 Sep 2020
https://eem20.eu/

Conference

Conference17th International Conference on the European Energy Market
Abbreviated titleEEM20
Period16/09/2018/09/20
Internet address

Keywords

  • wind power
  • forecasting
  • Wind Power Forecasting Competition
  • quantile forecasts
  • wind energy capacity

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  • Projects

    Prizes

    2nd Place: European Energy Markets Conference 2020 Wind Power Forecasting Competition

    Browell, Jethro (Recipient), Gilbert, Ciaran (Recipient), Tawn, Rosemary (Recipient) & May, Leo (Recipient), 29 Jun 2020

    Prize: Prize (including medals and awards)

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    Cite this

    Browell, J., Gilbert, C., Tawn, R., & May, L. (2020). Quantile combination for the EEM Wind Power Forecasting Competition. Paper presented at 17th International Conference on the European Energy Market, .