Projects per year
Combining forecasts is an established strategy for improving predictions and is employed here to produce probabilistic forecasts of regional wind power production in Sweden, finishing in second place in the EEM20 Wind Power Forecasting Competition. We combine quantile forecasts from two models with different characteristics: a ‘discrete’ tree-based model and ‘smooth’ generalised additive model. Quantiles are combined via linear weighting and the resulting combination is superior than both constituent forecasts in all four regions considered.
|Number of pages||6|
|Publication status||E-pub ahead of print - 16 Sep 2020|
|Event||17th International Conference on the European Energy Market - |
Duration: 16 Sep 2020 → 18 Sep 2020
|Conference||17th International Conference on the European Energy Market|
|Period||16/09/20 → 18/09/20|
- wind power
- Wind Power Forecasting Competition
- quantile forecasts
- wind energy capacity
29/06/18 → 28/06/21
Project: Research Fellowship
Prize: Prize (including medals and awards)
Browell, J., Gilbert, C., Tawn, R., & May, L. (2020). Quantile combination for the EEM Wind Power Forecasting Competition. Paper presented at 17th International Conference on the European Energy Market, .