Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance with structured expert judgment

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Antibiotic resistance is a major global concern. Although many countries collect resistance surveillance data, the large number of factors that influence the emergence and spread of resistance makes it extremely difficult to translate historical data into future predictions. To bridge the gap between existing surveillance data and the needs of decision makers, we use Cooke’s classical model of structured expert judgment to quantify uncertainty about future resistance rates for select pathogen-antibiotic pairs in several European countries.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 28 Jul 2017
EventINFORMS Healthcare 2017 - Rotterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 26 Jul 201728 Jul 2017


ConferenceINFORMS Healthcare 2017
Internet address


  • antibiotic resistance
  • resistance surveillance data
  • future resistance rates

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