Quantification of the influence of climate on predicted and observed cost of energy for offshore wind

I. Dinwoodie, D. McMillan, Y. Dalgic, I. Lazakis, M. Revie

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Abstract

This paper analyses the degree to which lifetime production and availability figures are subject to variation due to inherent inter annual climate variations. This is achieved by performing operational simulations based on different measurement periods chosen from 10 years of historic wind and wave data in the North Sea, establishing the financial implications this has for the industry. The investigation is carried out using a robust Monte Carlo simulation climate and lifetime operational expenditure model. Significant variations are observed with regards to availability, power production and OPEX costs with OPEX costs varying by 15% above and below the average value when a single year is used for the simulation input. It has also been demonstrated that results with similar availability predictions can have divergent power production and OPEX results. This is explained by the correlations between wind speed, wave height, accessibility and power production. The best practice to minimize uncertainty in cost projections from short term measurement campaigns has been identified.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationRenewable energies offshore
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 1st International Conference on Renewable Energies Offshore
Place of PublicationBoca Raton, FL.
Pages995-1002
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 7 Sep 2015
Event1st International Conference on Renewable Energies Offshore (RENEW2014) - Lisbon, Portugal
Duration: 24 Nov 201426 Nov 2014

Conference

Conference1st International Conference on Renewable Energies Offshore (RENEW2014)
CountryPortugal
CityLisbon
Period24/11/1426/11/14

Fingerprint

Availability
Costs
Industry
Monte Carlo simulation
Uncertainty

Keywords

  • offshore wind
  • operation and maintenance
  • renewable energy
  • climate
  • Monte Carlo
  • wind speed
  • wave height
  • correlation

Cite this

Dinwoodie, I., McMillan, D., Dalgic, Y., Lazakis, I., & Revie, M. (2015). Quantification of the influence of climate on predicted and observed cost of energy for offshore wind. In Renewable energies offshore: Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Renewable Energies Offshore (pp. 995-1002). Boca Raton, FL..
Dinwoodie, I. ; McMillan, D. ; Dalgic, Y. ; Lazakis, I. ; Revie, M. / Quantification of the influence of climate on predicted and observed cost of energy for offshore wind. Renewable energies offshore: Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Renewable Energies Offshore. Boca Raton, FL., 2015. pp. 995-1002
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abstract = "This paper analyses the degree to which lifetime production and availability figures are subject to variation due to inherent inter annual climate variations. This is achieved by performing operational simulations based on different measurement periods chosen from 10 years of historic wind and wave data in the North Sea, establishing the financial implications this has for the industry. The investigation is carried out using a robust Monte Carlo simulation climate and lifetime operational expenditure model. Significant variations are observed with regards to availability, power production and OPEX costs with OPEX costs varying by 15{\%} above and below the average value when a single year is used for the simulation input. It has also been demonstrated that results with similar availability predictions can have divergent power production and OPEX results. This is explained by the correlations between wind speed, wave height, accessibility and power production. The best practice to minimize uncertainty in cost projections from short term measurement campaigns has been identified.",
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Dinwoodie, I, McMillan, D, Dalgic, Y, Lazakis, I & Revie, M 2015, Quantification of the influence of climate on predicted and observed cost of energy for offshore wind. in Renewable energies offshore: Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Renewable Energies Offshore. Boca Raton, FL., pp. 995-1002, 1st International Conference on Renewable Energies Offshore (RENEW2014), Lisbon, Portugal, 24/11/14.

Quantification of the influence of climate on predicted and observed cost of energy for offshore wind. / Dinwoodie, I.; McMillan, D.; Dalgic, Y.; Lazakis, I.; Revie, M.

Renewable energies offshore: Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Renewable Energies Offshore. Boca Raton, FL., 2015. p. 995-1002.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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N2 - This paper analyses the degree to which lifetime production and availability figures are subject to variation due to inherent inter annual climate variations. This is achieved by performing operational simulations based on different measurement periods chosen from 10 years of historic wind and wave data in the North Sea, establishing the financial implications this has for the industry. The investigation is carried out using a robust Monte Carlo simulation climate and lifetime operational expenditure model. Significant variations are observed with regards to availability, power production and OPEX costs with OPEX costs varying by 15% above and below the average value when a single year is used for the simulation input. It has also been demonstrated that results with similar availability predictions can have divergent power production and OPEX results. This is explained by the correlations between wind speed, wave height, accessibility and power production. The best practice to minimize uncertainty in cost projections from short term measurement campaigns has been identified.

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Dinwoodie I, McMillan D, Dalgic Y, Lazakis I, Revie M. Quantification of the influence of climate on predicted and observed cost of energy for offshore wind. In Renewable energies offshore: Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Renewable Energies Offshore. Boca Raton, FL. 2015. p. 995-1002