Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement

A. Zitrou; T. Bedford; L. Walls

doi:10.1201/b17399-113

Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement

A. Zitrou, T. Bedford, L. Walls

Management Science

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

2 Citations (Scopus)

124 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We develop a model to capture state-of-knowledge, as well as aleatory, uncertainties associated with off-shore wind farm technologies, processes and environments. Our goal is to better understand systemic technology risks and support investment decisions for effective, efficient risk management. Typical epistemic uncertainties present in the offshore wind context are articulated. A protocol for eliciting expert judgment to quantify variables representing epistemic uncertainties and other relevant model parameters is presented. We discuss the elicitation of judgments from an expert panel of energy company technical specialists and show an application of our model to a generic new design offshore wind farm.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Safety and Reliability
Subtitle of host publication	Methodology and Applications : European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2014
Editors	Tomasz Nowakowski, Marek Młyńczak, Anna Jodejko-Pietruczuk, Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska
Place of Publication	Croyden
Pages	805–812
Number of pages	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1201/b17399-113
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2014

Keywords

epistemic uncertainty
decision support systems
offshore wind farms

Access to Document

10.1201/b17399-113

Zitrou-etal-ESREL2014-availability-risk-of-future-offshore-wind-farms-using-expert-judgmentAccepted author manuscript, 466 KB

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Zitrou, A., Bedford, T., & Walls, L. (2014). Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement. In T. Nowakowski, M. Młyńczak, A. Jodejko-Pietruczuk, & S. Werbińska-Wojciechowska (Eds.), Safety and Reliability : Methodology and Applications : European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2014 (pp. 805–812). https://doi.org/10.1201/b17399-113

Zitrou, A. ; Bedford, T. ; Walls, L. / Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement. Safety and Reliability : Methodology and Applications : European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2014. editor / Tomasz Nowakowski ; Marek Młyńczak ; Anna Jodejko-Pietruczuk ; Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska. Croyden, 2014. pp. 805–812

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Zitrou, A, Bedford, T & Walls, L 2014, Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement. in T Nowakowski, M Młyńczak, A Jodejko-Pietruczuk & S Werbińska-Wojciechowska (eds), Safety and Reliability : Methodology and Applications : European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2014. Croyden, pp. 805–812. https://doi.org/10.1201/b17399-113

Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement. / Zitrou, A.; Bedford, T.; Walls, L.

Safety and Reliability : Methodology and Applications : European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2014. ed. / Tomasz Nowakowski; Marek Młyńczak; Anna Jodejko-Pietruczuk; Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska. Croyden, 2014. p. 805–812.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

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T1 - Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement

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AU - Bedford, T.

AU - Walls, L.

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N2 - We develop a model to capture state-of-knowledge, as well as aleatory, uncertainties associated with off-shore wind farm technologies, processes and environments. Our goal is to better understand systemic technology risks and support investment decisions for effective, efficient risk management. Typical epistemic uncertainties present in the offshore wind context are articulated. A protocol for eliciting expert judgment to quantify variables representing epistemic uncertainties and other relevant model parameters is presented. We discuss the elicitation of judgments from an expert panel of energy company technical specialists and show an application of our model to a generic new design offshore wind farm.

AB - We develop a model to capture state-of-knowledge, as well as aleatory, uncertainties associated with off-shore wind farm technologies, processes and environments. Our goal is to better understand systemic technology risks and support investment decisions for effective, efficient risk management. Typical epistemic uncertainties present in the offshore wind context are articulated. A protocol for eliciting expert judgment to quantify variables representing epistemic uncertainties and other relevant model parameters is presented. We discuss the elicitation of judgments from an expert panel of energy company technical specialists and show an application of our model to a generic new design offshore wind farm.

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KW - decision support systems

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DO - 10.1201/b17399-113

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A2 - Jodejko-Pietruczuk, Anna

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Zitrou A, Bedford T , Walls L. Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement. In Nowakowski T, Młyńczak M, Jodejko-Pietruczuk A, Werbińska-Wojciechowska S, editors, Safety and Reliability : Methodology and Applications : European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2014. Croyden. 2014. p. 805–812 doi: 10.1201/b17399-113

Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement

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