Projection and detection procedures for long-term wave climate change impact on fatigue damage of offshore floating structures

Tao Zou, Miroslaw Lech Kaminski, Hang Li, Longbin Tao

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Abstract

The climate change may affect the long-term wave statistics and consequently affect the cumulative fatigue damage. This paper aims to project the trend of annual fatigue damage of offshore floating structures and to detect the climate change impact on the future fatigue damage by coupling a conventional fatigue design method with climate and wave models. Firstly, climate scenarios are selected to project the global radiative forcing level over decadal or century time scales. Secondly, climate models are used to simulate atmosphere circulations and to obtain the wind field data. Thirdly, wave conditions are simulated by coupling wind driven wave models to climate models. Fourthly, stress analysis and fatigue assessments are conducted to project the annual fatigue damage. At last, control simulations are carried out in order to identify the range of natural variability and to detect the human-induced change. A case study is presented in the Sable field offshore South Africa. The results indicate that the significant wave height is considerably influenced by the human-induced climate change. However, this change induced by human activities is still partially masked by the dominant natural variability. In addition, both the significant wave height and the annual fatigue damage increase over century time-scales.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
Subtitle of host publicationVolume 2A: Structures, Safety, and Reliability
Place of PublicationNew York
PublisherAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers(ASME)
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9780791884324
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 Dec 2020
EventASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, OMAE 2020 - Virtual, Online
Duration: 3 Aug 20207 Aug 2020

Conference

ConferenceASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, OMAE 2020
CityVirtual, Online
Period3/08/207/08/20

Keywords

  • climate models
  • fatigue damage
  • human-induced climate change
  • natural climate change
  • wave models

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