Probability of achieving the energy efficiency index by Monte Carlo simulation

IMO is introducing two different emission indexes for a vessel: the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI). Both EEDI and EEOI will be probably used as part of a levy scheme to force the maritime sector to significantly reduce the carbon footprint. At present do exist few ports and/or states applying fees based on ship emissions. The reliability of a regular shipping service, or service reliability, defined as the probability to complete the link within schedule, is an important parameter that greatly influences commercial aspects, as well as the ship carbon footprint. In this paper the authors present a procedure to evaluate the EEOI indicator by Monte Carlo simulation, estimating the total ship fuel consumption as a function of the random variables displacement and speed. A complete series of operating data concerning two years of navigation, for a commercial trade in the Mediterranean Sea, were collected and used to validate the code.