Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for a new-build nuclear power plant site in the UK

Iain J. Tromans, Guillermo Aldama-Bustos, John Douglas, Angeliki Lessi-Cheimariou, Simon Hunt, Manuela Davi, Roger M. W. Musson, Graham Garrard, Fleur O. Strasser, Colin Robertson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been conducted as part of the Safety Case justification for a new-build nuclear power plant in the UK. The study followed a cost-efficient methodology developed by CH2M and associates for safety-significant infrastructure where high-level regulatory assurance is required. Historical seismicity was re-evaluated from original sources. The seismicity model considered fourteen seismic sources which, when combined, formed six alternative seismic source models. Separate models for the median ground-motion and aleatory variability were considered. The median ground-motion model comprised a suite of ground-motion equations adjusted to the site-specific conditions using VS-kappa factors. A partially non-ergodic sigma model was adopted with separate components for the inter-event variability, and single-station intra-event variability, adjusted by a partially ergodic site-to-site variability term. Site response analysis was performed using equivalent-linear random vibration theory with explicit incorporation of the variability in the ground properties using Monte Carlo simulations. The final PSHA results were obtained by convolution of the hazard at the reference rock horizon with the site amplification factors. The overall epistemic uncertainty captured by the logic tree was assessed and compared against results from earlier PSHA studies for the same site.
LanguageEnglish
Number of pages36
JournalBulletin of Earthquake Engineering
Early online date6 Aug 2018
DOIs
StateE-pub ahead of print - 6 Aug 2018

Fingerprint

nuclear power plants
hazard assessment
nuclear power plant
seismic hazard
hazards
Nuclear power plants
Hazards
ground motion
seismic source
seismicity
safety
linear vibration
random vibration
response analysis
assurance
Convolution
convolution integrals
Equations of motion
horizon
logic

Keywords

  • PSHA
  • nuclear power plants
  • seismic hazard
  • Hinkley Point
  • UK

Cite this

Tromans, I. J., Aldama-Bustos, G., Douglas, J., Lessi-Cheimariou, A., Hunt, S., Davi, M., ... Robertson, C. (2018). Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for a new-build nuclear power plant site in the UK. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. DOI: 10.1007/s10518-018-0441-6
Tromans, Iain J. ; Aldama-Bustos, Guillermo ; Douglas, John ; Lessi-Cheimariou, Angeliki ; Hunt, Simon ; Davi, Manuela ; Musson, Roger M. W. ; Garrard, Graham ; Strasser, Fleur O. ; Robertson, Colin. / Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for a new-build nuclear power plant site in the UK. In: Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. 2018
@article{8c841bc81be54be4a00faf375c1c0869,
title = "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for a new-build nuclear power plant site in the UK",
abstract = "A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been conducted as part of the Safety Case justification for a new-build nuclear power plant in the UK. The study followed a cost-efficient methodology developed by CH2M and associates for safety-significant infrastructure where high-level regulatory assurance is required. Historical seismicity was re-evaluated from original sources. The seismicity model considered fourteen seismic sources which, when combined, formed six alternative seismic source models. Separate models for the median ground-motion and aleatory variability were considered. The median ground-motion model comprised a suite of ground-motion equations adjusted to the site-specific conditions using VS-kappa factors. A partially non-ergodic sigma model was adopted with separate components for the inter-event variability, and single-station intra-event variability, adjusted by a partially ergodic site-to-site variability term. Site response analysis was performed using equivalent-linear random vibration theory with explicit incorporation of the variability in the ground properties using Monte Carlo simulations. The final PSHA results were obtained by convolution of the hazard at the reference rock horizon with the site amplification factors. The overall epistemic uncertainty captured by the logic tree was assessed and compared against results from earlier PSHA studies for the same site.",
keywords = "PSHA, nuclear power plants, seismic hazard, Hinkley Point, UK",
author = "Tromans, {Iain J.} and Guillermo Aldama-Bustos and John Douglas and Angeliki Lessi-Cheimariou and Simon Hunt and Manuela Davi and Musson, {Roger M. W.} and Graham Garrard and Strasser, {Fleur O.} and Colin Robertson",
year = "2018",
month = "8",
day = "6",
doi = "10.1007/s10518-018-0441-6",
language = "English",
journal = "Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering",
issn = "1570-761X",

}

Tromans, IJ, Aldama-Bustos, G, Douglas, J, Lessi-Cheimariou, A, Hunt, S, Davi, M, Musson, RMW, Garrard, G, Strasser, FO & Robertson, C 2018, 'Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for a new-build nuclear power plant site in the UK' Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. DOI: 10.1007/s10518-018-0441-6

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for a new-build nuclear power plant site in the UK. / Tromans, Iain J.; Aldama-Bustos, Guillermo; Douglas, John; Lessi-Cheimariou, Angeliki; Hunt, Simon; Davi, Manuela; Musson, Roger M. W.; Garrard, Graham; Strasser, Fleur O.; Robertson, Colin.

In: Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 06.08.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for a new-build nuclear power plant site in the UK

AU - Tromans,Iain J.

AU - Aldama-Bustos,Guillermo

AU - Douglas,John

AU - Lessi-Cheimariou,Angeliki

AU - Hunt,Simon

AU - Davi,Manuela

AU - Musson,Roger M. W.

AU - Garrard,Graham

AU - Strasser,Fleur O.

AU - Robertson,Colin

PY - 2018/8/6

Y1 - 2018/8/6

N2 - A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been conducted as part of the Safety Case justification for a new-build nuclear power plant in the UK. The study followed a cost-efficient methodology developed by CH2M and associates for safety-significant infrastructure where high-level regulatory assurance is required. Historical seismicity was re-evaluated from original sources. The seismicity model considered fourteen seismic sources which, when combined, formed six alternative seismic source models. Separate models for the median ground-motion and aleatory variability were considered. The median ground-motion model comprised a suite of ground-motion equations adjusted to the site-specific conditions using VS-kappa factors. A partially non-ergodic sigma model was adopted with separate components for the inter-event variability, and single-station intra-event variability, adjusted by a partially ergodic site-to-site variability term. Site response analysis was performed using equivalent-linear random vibration theory with explicit incorporation of the variability in the ground properties using Monte Carlo simulations. The final PSHA results were obtained by convolution of the hazard at the reference rock horizon with the site amplification factors. The overall epistemic uncertainty captured by the logic tree was assessed and compared against results from earlier PSHA studies for the same site.

AB - A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been conducted as part of the Safety Case justification for a new-build nuclear power plant in the UK. The study followed a cost-efficient methodology developed by CH2M and associates for safety-significant infrastructure where high-level regulatory assurance is required. Historical seismicity was re-evaluated from original sources. The seismicity model considered fourteen seismic sources which, when combined, formed six alternative seismic source models. Separate models for the median ground-motion and aleatory variability were considered. The median ground-motion model comprised a suite of ground-motion equations adjusted to the site-specific conditions using VS-kappa factors. A partially non-ergodic sigma model was adopted with separate components for the inter-event variability, and single-station intra-event variability, adjusted by a partially ergodic site-to-site variability term. Site response analysis was performed using equivalent-linear random vibration theory with explicit incorporation of the variability in the ground properties using Monte Carlo simulations. The final PSHA results were obtained by convolution of the hazard at the reference rock horizon with the site amplification factors. The overall epistemic uncertainty captured by the logic tree was assessed and compared against results from earlier PSHA studies for the same site.

KW - PSHA

KW - nuclear power plants

KW - seismic hazard

KW - Hinkley Point

KW - UK

UR - https://link.springer.com/journal/10518

U2 - 10.1007/s10518-018-0441-6

DO - 10.1007/s10518-018-0441-6

M3 - Article

JO - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

T2 - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

JF - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

SN - 1570-761X

ER -

Tromans IJ, Aldama-Bustos G, Douglas J, Lessi-Cheimariou A, Hunt S, Davi M et al. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for a new-build nuclear power plant site in the UK. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. 2018 Aug 6. Available from, DOI: 10.1007/s10518-018-0441-6