Probabilistic performance assessment of a coal-fired power plant

D. P. Hanak, A. J. Kolios, C. Biliyok, V. Manovic

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Despite the low-carbon environmental policies, coal is expected to remain a main source of energy in the coming decades. Therefore, efficient and environmentally friendly power systems are required. A design process based on the deterministic models and application of the safety factors leads to the equipment oversizing, hence fall in the efficiency and increase in the capital and operating costs. In this work, applicability of a non-intrusive stochastic methodology to determine the probability of the power plant equipment failure was investigated. This alternative approach to the power plant performance assessment employs approximation methods for the deterministic prediction of the key performance indicators, which are used to estimate reliability indices based on the uncertainty of the input to a process model of the coal-fired power plant. This study revealed that high reliability indices obtained in the analysis would lead to reduced application of conservative safety factors on the plant equipment, which should result in lower capital and operating cost, through a more reliable assessment of its performance state over its service time, and lead to the optimisation of its inspection and maintenance interventions.

LanguageEnglish
Pages350-364
Number of pages15
JournalApplied Energy
Volume139
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2015
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

performance assessment
coal-fired power plant
power plant
Power plants
Safety factor
Coal
safety
Operating costs
cost
environmental policy
coal
methodology
carbon
prediction
Inspection
energy
Carbon
plant equipment
index
inspection

Keywords

  • coal-fired power plant
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • probabilistic performance assessment
  • stochastic modelling
  • stochastic response surface method

Cite this

Hanak, D. P. ; Kolios, A. J. ; Biliyok, C. ; Manovic, V. / Probabilistic performance assessment of a coal-fired power plant. In: Applied Energy. 2015 ; Vol. 139. pp. 350-364.
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Probabilistic performance assessment of a coal-fired power plant. / Hanak, D. P.; Kolios, A. J.; Biliyok, C.; Manovic, V.

In: Applied Energy, Vol. 139, 01.02.2015, p. 350-364.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Kolios, A. J.

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