Abstract
Simplified progressive collapse method (Smith method) is codified in the Common Structural Rule (CSR) to calculate the ultimate bending capacity of ship hull girders. However, several benchmark studies have demonstrated a notable uncertainty in predicting the progressive collapse and ultimate limit state of ship hull girders, which is primarily attributed to load-shortening curve (LSC) of local structural components adopted by different participants. In this regard, this paper employs a probabilistic approach to assess the uncertainty of ultimate ship hull strength prediction caused by the critical features of structural component's LSC, e.g. ultimate compressive strength. Probability distribution of ultimate compressive strength estimation of stiffened panels is developed based on a dataset generated by different empirical formulae and nonlinear finite element method. An adaptable LSC formulation, with ability to accommodate different compressive strength of local components, is utilised in conjunction with the Monte-Carlo Simulation procedure where the simplified progressive collapse method is employed to complete the ultimate ship hull strength prediction in each sampling. Case study is conducted on a single hull VLCC and it is found that the CSR-based ultimate ship hull strength prediction follows a Weibull distribution when considering the computational uncertainty caused by different LSC models. The results and insights developed from this paper would be useful to improve the reliability-based design of marine structures.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Developments in Maritime Technology and Engineering |
Subtitle of host publication | Celebrating 40 years of Teaching in Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering in Portugal and the 25th anniversary of CENTEC |
Editors | C. Guedes Soares, T.A. Santos |
Place of Publication | London |
Pages | 567-573 |
Number of pages | 7 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 8 Jul 2021 |
Event | 5th International Conference on Maritime Technology and Engineeering - Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Lisbon, Portugal Duration: 16 Nov 2020 → 19 Nov 2020 Conference number: 5TH https://tecnico.ulisboa.pt/en/events/martech-2020-5th-international-conference-on-maritime-technology-and-engineering/ http://www.centec.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/martech2020/ |
Conference
Conference | 5th International Conference on Maritime Technology and Engineeering |
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Abbreviated title | MARTECH 2020 |
Country/Territory | Portugal |
City | Lisbon |
Period | 16/11/20 → 19/11/20 |
Internet address |
Keywords
- probabilistic evaluation
- computational uncertainty
- ultimate ship hull strength prediction
- common structural rule (CSR)
- ship hull girders
- Monte-Carlo simulation