Probabilistic evaluation of the computational uncertainty in ultimate ship hull strength prediction

Shen Li, Simon Benson

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

2 Citations (Scopus)
28 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Simplified progressive collapse method (Smith method) is codified in the Common Structural Rule (CSR) to calculate the ultimate bending capacity of ship hull girders. However, several benchmark studies have demonstrated a notable uncertainty in predicting the progressive collapse and ultimate limit state of ship hull girders, which is primarily attributed to load-shortening curve (LSC) of local structural components adopted by different participants. In this regard, this paper employs a probabilistic approach to assess the uncertainty of ultimate ship hull strength prediction caused by the critical features of structural component's LSC, e.g. ultimate compressive strength. Probability distribution of ultimate compressive strength estimation of stiffened panels is developed based on a dataset generated by different empirical formulae and nonlinear finite element method. An adaptable LSC formulation, with ability to accommodate different compressive strength of local components, is utilised in conjunction with the Monte-Carlo Simulation procedure where the simplified progressive collapse method is employed to complete the ultimate ship hull strength prediction in each sampling. Case study is conducted on a single hull VLCC and it is found that the CSR-based ultimate ship hull strength prediction follows a Weibull distribution when considering the computational uncertainty caused by different LSC models. The results and insights developed from this paper would be useful to improve the reliability-based design of marine structures.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationDevelopments in Maritime Technology and Engineering
Subtitle of host publicationCelebrating 40 years of Teaching in Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering in Portugal and the 25th anniversary of CENTEC
EditorsC. Guedes Soares, T.A. Santos
Place of PublicationLondon
Pages567-573
Number of pages7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 8 Jul 2021
Event5th International Conference on Maritime Technology and Engineeering - Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Lisbon, Portugal
Duration: 16 Nov 202019 Nov 2020
Conference number: 5TH
https://tecnico.ulisboa.pt/en/events/martech-2020-5th-international-conference-on-maritime-technology-and-engineering/
http://www.centec.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/martech2020/

Conference

Conference5th International Conference on Maritime Technology and Engineeering
Abbreviated titleMARTECH 2020
Country/TerritoryPortugal
CityLisbon
Period16/11/2019/11/20
Internet address

Keywords

  • probabilistic evaluation
  • computational uncertainty
  • ultimate ship hull strength prediction
  • common structural rule (CSR)
  • ship hull girders
  • Monte-Carlo simulation

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Probabilistic evaluation of the computational uncertainty in ultimate ship hull strength prediction'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this