Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

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Improving access is a priority in the offshore wind sector, driven by the opportunity to increase revenues, reduce costs, and improve safety at operational wind farms. This paper describes a novel method for producing probabilistic forecasts of safetycritical access conditions during crew transfers. Methods of generating density forecasts of significant wave height and peak wave period are developed and evaluated. It is found that boosted semi-parametric models outperform those estimated via maximum likelihood, as well as a non-parametric approach. Scenario forecasts of sea-state variables are generated and used as inputs to a datadriven vessel motion model, based on telemetry recorded during 700 crew transfers. This enables the production of probabilistic access forecasts of vessel motion during crew transfer up to 5 days ahead. The above methodology is implemented on a case study at a wind farm off the east coast of the UK.
Original languageEnglish
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Early online date12 May 2020
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 12 May 2020


  • wind energy
  • offshore access
  • probabilistic forecasting
  • multivariate forecasting
  • forecast visualisation
  • generalised additive models

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    Research Output

    • 1 Conference contribution book
    • 1 Speech
    • 1 Conference Contribution

    A data-driven vessel motion model for offshore access forecasting

    Gilbert, C., Browell, J. & McMillan, D., 19 Oct 2019, OCEANS 2019 - Marseille. Piscataway, NJ.: IEEE, 6 p. 8867176

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

    Open Access
  • 6 Downloads (Pure)

    Visualisation of probabilistic access forecasts for offshore operations

    Gilbert, C., Browell, J. & McMillan, D., 21 May 2019, In : Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 1222, 1, 9 p., 012040.

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference Contribution

    Open Access
  • 1 Citation (Scopus)
    5 Downloads (Pure)


    • 1 Organiser of special symposia

    Wind Energy Science conference 2019

    David McMillan (Chair), Sally Shenton (Keynote/plenary speaker), Chris Briggs (Keynote/plenary speaker), James Carroll (Keynote/plenary speaker)

    Activity: Participating in or organising an event typesOrganiser of special symposia

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