Prior distribution elicitation

J.L. Quigley; T.J. Bedford; L.A. Walls

doi:10.1002/9780470061572.eqr087

Prior distribution elicitation

J.L. Quigley, T.J. Bedford, L.A. Walls

Management Science

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Abstract

An overview of key issues associated with the elicitation of a prior probability distribution is provided. The nature of subjective probability is discussed, and the main causes of biased assessments are identified. Evidence is presented suggesting that people can improve their probability assessments under the correct conditions. The ways in which the elicitation of a prior distribution can be embedded within a process to minimize the impact of bias are examined. More advanced issues, namely validation of a prior distribution and reducing the cognitive burden on experts, are described.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability
Editors	Fabrizio Ruggeri, Ron Kenett, Frederick Faltin
Publisher	John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Number of pages	1800
ISBN (Print)	9780470018613
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470061572.eqr087
Publication status	Published - 15 Mar 2008

Keywords

elicitation
prior distributions
Bayesian
subjective probability

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KW - Bayesian

KW - subjective probability

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PB - John Wiley & Sons Inc.

ER -

Prior distribution elicitation

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Keywords

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