An overview of key issues associated with the elicitation of a prior probability distribution is provided. The nature of subjective probability is discussed, and the main causes of biased assessments are identified. Evidence is presented suggesting that people can improve their probability assessments under the correct conditions. The ways in which the elicitation of a prior distribution can be embedded within a process to minimize the impact of bias are examined. More advanced issues, namely validation of a prior distribution and reducing the cognitive burden on experts, are described.
|Title of host publication||Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability|
|Editors||Fabrizio Ruggeri, Ron Kenett, Frederick Faltin|
|Publisher||John Wiley & Sons Inc.|
|Number of pages||1800|
|Publication status||Published - 15 Mar 2008|
- prior distributions
- subjective probability