Prior distribution elicitation

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Abstract

An overview of key issues associated with the elicitation of a prior probability distribution is provided. The nature of subjective probability is discussed, and the main causes of biased assessments are identified. Evidence is presented suggesting that people can improve their probability assessments under the correct conditions. The ways in which the elicitation of a prior distribution can be embedded within a process to minimize the impact of bias are examined. More advanced issues, namely validation of a prior distribution and reducing the cognitive burden on experts, are described.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationEncyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability
EditorsFabrizio Ruggeri, Ron Kenett, Frederick Faltin
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons Inc.
Number of pages1800
ISBN (Print)9780470018613
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Mar 2008

Keywords

  • elicitation
  • prior distributions
  • Bayesian
  • subjective probability

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  • Cite this

    Quigley, J. L., Bedford, T. J., & Walls, L. A. (2008). Prior distribution elicitation. In F. Ruggeri, R. Kenett, & F. Faltin (Eds.), Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability John Wiley & Sons Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470061572.eqr087