Prior distribution elicitation

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

An overview of key issues associated with the elicitation of a prior probability distribution is provided. The nature of subjective probability is discussed, and the main causes of biased assessments are identified. Evidence is presented suggesting that people can improve their probability assessments under the correct conditions. The ways in which the elicitation of a prior distribution can be embedded within a process to minimize the impact of bias are examined. More advanced issues, namely validation of a prior distribution and reducing the cognitive burden on experts, are described.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationEncyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability
EditorsFabrizio Ruggeri, Ron Kenett, Frederick Faltin
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons Inc.
Number of pages1800
ISBN (Print)9780470018613
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Mar 2008

Fingerprint

Elicitation
Prior distribution
Subjective Probability
Prior Probability
Biased
Probability Distribution
Minimise
Probability distribution
Burden
Probability assessment
Subjective probability

Keywords

  • elicitation
  • prior distributions
  • Bayesian
  • subjective probability

Cite this

Quigley, J. L., Bedford, T. J., & Walls, L. A. (2008). Prior distribution elicitation. In F. Ruggeri, R. Kenett, & F. Faltin (Eds.), Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability John Wiley & Sons Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470061572.eqr087
Quigley, J.L. ; Bedford, T.J. ; Walls, L.A. / Prior distribution elicitation. Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability. editor / Fabrizio Ruggeri ; Ron Kenett ; Frederick Faltin. John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2008.
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Quigley, JL, Bedford, TJ & Walls, LA 2008, Prior distribution elicitation. in F Ruggeri, R Kenett & F Faltin (eds), Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability. John Wiley & Sons Inc. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470061572.eqr087

Prior distribution elicitation. / Quigley, J.L.; Bedford, T.J.; Walls, L.A.

Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability. ed. / Fabrizio Ruggeri; Ron Kenett; Frederick Faltin. John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2008.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

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AB - An overview of key issues associated with the elicitation of a prior probability distribution is provided. The nature of subjective probability is discussed, and the main causes of biased assessments are identified. Evidence is presented suggesting that people can improve their probability assessments under the correct conditions. The ways in which the elicitation of a prior distribution can be embedded within a process to minimize the impact of bias are examined. More advanced issues, namely validation of a prior distribution and reducing the cognitive burden on experts, are described.

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Quigley JL, Bedford TJ, Walls LA. Prior distribution elicitation. In Ruggeri F, Kenett R, Faltin F, editors, Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability. John Wiley & Sons Inc. 2008 https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470061572.eqr087