Preparing for the future: development of an 'antifragile' methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation

James Derbyshire, George Wright

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    Abstract

    Abstract This paper demonstrates that the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planning emphasises the causal unfolding of future events and that this emphasis limits its ability to aid preparation for the future, for example by giving a misleading impression as to the usefulness of ‘weak signals’ or ‘early warnings’. We argue for the benefits of an alternative method that views uncertainty as originating from indeterminism. We develop and illustrate an ‘antifragile’ approach to preparing for the future and present it as a step-by-step, non-deterministic methodology that can be used as a replacement for, or as a complement to, the causally-focused approach of scenario planning.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)215-225
    Number of pages11
    JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
    Volume82
    Early online date16 Aug 2013
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 28 Feb 2014

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    Keywords

    • scenario planning
    • intuitive Logics
    • causality
    • indeterminism
    • fragility
    • uncertainty

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