Preliminary space mission design under uncertainty

Nicolas Croisard, Massimiliano Vasile, Stephen Kemble, Gianmarco Radice

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

22 Citations (Scopus)
94 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This paper proposes a way to model uncertainties and to introduce them explicitly in the design process of a preliminary space mission. Traditionally, a system margin approach is used in order to take the min to account. In this paper, Evidence Theory is proposed to crystallise the inherent uncertainties. The design process is then formulated as an optimisation under uncertainties(OUU). Three techniques are proposed to solve the OUU problem: (a) an evolutionary multi-objective approach, (b) a step technique consisting of maximising the belief for different levels of performance, and (c) a clustering method that firstly identifies feasible regions.The three methods are applied to the Bepi Colombo mission and their effectiveness at solving the OUU problem are compared.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)654-664
Number of pages11
JournalActa Astronautica
Volume66
Issue number5-6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2010

Fingerprint

Uncertainty

Keywords

  • modelling uncertainties
  • optimisation under uncertainties (OUU)
  • BepiColombo mission

Cite this

Croisard, Nicolas ; Vasile, Massimiliano ; Kemble, Stephen ; Radice, Gianmarco. / Preliminary space mission design under uncertainty. In: Acta Astronautica. 2010 ; Vol. 66, No. 5-6. pp. 654-664 .
@article{8d3eafb7a26d4629b0875bc84cbda67f,
title = "Preliminary space mission design under uncertainty",
abstract = "This paper proposes a way to model uncertainties and to introduce them explicitly in the design process of a preliminary space mission. Traditionally, a system margin approach is used in order to take the min to account. In this paper, Evidence Theory is proposed to crystallise the inherent uncertainties. The design process is then formulated as an optimisation under uncertainties(OUU). Three techniques are proposed to solve the OUU problem: (a) an evolutionary multi-objective approach, (b) a step technique consisting of maximising the belief for different levels of performance, and (c) a clustering method that firstly identifies feasible regions.The three methods are applied to the Bepi Colombo mission and their effectiveness at solving the OUU problem are compared.",
keywords = "modelling uncertainties, optimisation under uncertainties (OUU), BepiColombo mission",
author = "Nicolas Croisard and Massimiliano Vasile and Stephen Kemble and Gianmarco Radice",
year = "2010",
month = "3",
doi = "10.1016/j.actaastro.2009.08.004",
language = "English",
volume = "66",
pages = "654--664",
journal = "Acta Astronautica",
issn = "0094-5765",
number = "5-6",

}

Preliminary space mission design under uncertainty. / Croisard, Nicolas; Vasile, Massimiliano; Kemble, Stephen; Radice, Gianmarco.

In: Acta Astronautica, Vol. 66, No. 5-6, 03.2010, p. 654-664 .

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Preliminary space mission design under uncertainty

AU - Croisard, Nicolas

AU - Vasile, Massimiliano

AU - Kemble, Stephen

AU - Radice, Gianmarco

PY - 2010/3

Y1 - 2010/3

N2 - This paper proposes a way to model uncertainties and to introduce them explicitly in the design process of a preliminary space mission. Traditionally, a system margin approach is used in order to take the min to account. In this paper, Evidence Theory is proposed to crystallise the inherent uncertainties. The design process is then formulated as an optimisation under uncertainties(OUU). Three techniques are proposed to solve the OUU problem: (a) an evolutionary multi-objective approach, (b) a step technique consisting of maximising the belief for different levels of performance, and (c) a clustering method that firstly identifies feasible regions.The three methods are applied to the Bepi Colombo mission and their effectiveness at solving the OUU problem are compared.

AB - This paper proposes a way to model uncertainties and to introduce them explicitly in the design process of a preliminary space mission. Traditionally, a system margin approach is used in order to take the min to account. In this paper, Evidence Theory is proposed to crystallise the inherent uncertainties. The design process is then formulated as an optimisation under uncertainties(OUU). Three techniques are proposed to solve the OUU problem: (a) an evolutionary multi-objective approach, (b) a step technique consisting of maximising the belief for different levels of performance, and (c) a clustering method that firstly identifies feasible regions.The three methods are applied to the Bepi Colombo mission and their effectiveness at solving the OUU problem are compared.

KW - modelling uncertainties

KW - optimisation under uncertainties (OUU)

KW - BepiColombo mission

UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576509004019

U2 - 10.1016/j.actaastro.2009.08.004

DO - 10.1016/j.actaastro.2009.08.004

M3 - Article

VL - 66

SP - 654

EP - 664

JO - Acta Astronautica

JF - Acta Astronautica

SN - 0094-5765

IS - 5-6

ER -