Predicting Paris: multi-method approaches to forecast the outcomes of global climate negotiations

Detlef F. Sprinz, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Stefan Kallbekken, Frans Stokman, Håkon Sælen, Robert Thomson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining
experts' predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts' predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation
models were not statistically significant.
LanguageEnglish
Pages172-187
Number of pages16
JournalPolitics and Governance
Volume4
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 8 Sep 2016

Fingerprint

global climate
climate
prediction
uncertainty
expert survey
expert
United Nations
simulation model
UNO
climate change
forecast
method
leader
event
simulation
performance
evidence

Keywords

  • climate policy
  • climate regime
  • expert survey
  • forecasting
  • global negotiations
  • Paris agreement
  • prediction
  • simulation

Cite this

Sprinz, D. F., Bueno de Mesquita, B., Kallbekken, S., Stokman, F., Sælen, H., & Thomson, R. (2016). Predicting Paris: multi-method approaches to forecast the outcomes of global climate negotiations. Politics and Governance, 4(3), 172-187. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.654
Sprinz, Detlef F. ; Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce ; Kallbekken, Stefan ; Stokman, Frans ; Sælen, Håkon ; Thomson, Robert. / Predicting Paris : multi-method approaches to forecast the outcomes of global climate negotiations. In: Politics and Governance. 2016 ; Vol. 4, No. 3. pp. 172-187.
@article{47d511d0fb214969aa35c5504ae0968c,
title = "Predicting Paris: multi-method approaches to forecast the outcomes of global climate negotiations",
abstract = "We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combiningexperts' predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts' predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulationmodels were not statistically significant.",
keywords = "climate policy, climate regime, expert survey, forecasting, global negotiations, Paris agreement, prediction, simulation",
author = "Sprinz, {Detlef F.} and {Bueno de Mesquita}, Bruce and Stefan Kallbekken and Frans Stokman and H{\aa}kon S{\ae}len and Robert Thomson",
year = "2016",
month = "9",
day = "8",
doi = "10.17645/pag.v4i3.654",
language = "English",
volume = "4",
pages = "172--187",
journal = "Politics and Governance",
issn = "2183-2463",
number = "3",

}

Sprinz, DF, Bueno de Mesquita, B, Kallbekken, S, Stokman, F, Sælen, H & Thomson, R 2016, 'Predicting Paris: multi-method approaches to forecast the outcomes of global climate negotiations' Politics and Governance, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 172-187. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.654

Predicting Paris : multi-method approaches to forecast the outcomes of global climate negotiations. / Sprinz, Detlef F.; Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce; Kallbekken, Stefan; Stokman, Frans; Sælen, Håkon; Thomson, Robert.

In: Politics and Governance, Vol. 4, No. 3, 08.09.2016, p. 172-187.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting Paris

T2 - Politics and Governance

AU - Sprinz, Detlef F.

AU - Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce

AU - Kallbekken, Stefan

AU - Stokman, Frans

AU - Sælen, Håkon

AU - Thomson, Robert

PY - 2016/9/8

Y1 - 2016/9/8

N2 - We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combiningexperts' predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts' predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulationmodels were not statistically significant.

AB - We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combiningexperts' predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts' predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulationmodels were not statistically significant.

KW - climate policy

KW - climate regime

KW - expert survey

KW - forecasting

KW - global negotiations

KW - Paris agreement

KW - prediction

KW - simulation

UR - http://www.cogitatiopress.com/ojs/index.php/politicsandgovernance/index

U2 - 10.17645/pag.v4i3.654

DO - 10.17645/pag.v4i3.654

M3 - Article

VL - 4

SP - 172

EP - 187

JO - Politics and Governance

JF - Politics and Governance

SN - 2183-2463

IS - 3

ER -

Sprinz DF, Bueno de Mesquita B, Kallbekken S, Stokman F, Sælen H, Thomson R. Predicting Paris: multi-method approaches to forecast the outcomes of global climate negotiations. Politics and Governance. 2016 Sep 8;4(3):172-187. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.654