Predictability of scrub typhus incidences time series in Thailand

Valeria Bondarenko, Pierre Mazzega, Claire Lajaunie

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Abstract

Scrub typhus, an infectious disease caused by a bacterium transmitted by "chigger" mites, constitutes a public health problem in Thailand. Predicting epidemic peaks would allow implementing preventive measures locally. This study analyses the predictability of the time series of incidence of scrub typhus aggregated at the provincial level. After stationarizing the time series, the evaluation of the Hurst exponents indicates the provinces where the epidemiological dynamics present a long memory and are predictable. The predictive performances of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model), ARFIMA (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) and fractional Brownian motion models are evaluated. The results constitute the reference level for the predictability of the incidence data of this zoonosis.
Original languageEnglish
Article number44
Number of pages9
JournalEngineering Proceedings
Volume5
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Jul 2021
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • infectious disease
  • predictability
  • incidence
  • time series
  • ARIMA
  • ARFIMA
  • fBm
  • scrub typhus
  • Thailand

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