Population, employment and labour force projections

David N. F. Bell, Frank X. Kirwan

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    The population of Scotland evolves over time under the combined influence of births, deaths and migration. Given appropriate assumptions about these three factors, population forecasts may be generated and analysed. Such forecasts are published annually in Scotland by the Office of the Registrar General. (1976a). These forecasts may be converted into an estimate of labour supply by scaling by the participation rates of the various age-sex groups. Such estimates are published from time to time in the Department of Employment Gazette (see for example pp 1258-63 December 1975). Occasionally an attempt is made to
    identify sectors in which the increased labour supply might be absorbed, (e.g. Department of Employment Gazette, July 1975) Heretofore, these three macro-aggregates have been forecast and analysed in isolation. However, it is the aim of this study to draw these forecasts together in order to present a possible outline of the Scottish labour market in mid 1981, and to explore the sensitivity of the resulting projections to alternative migration assumptions. The paper consists of three parts:- 1 Population projections; 2 Labour force projections; 3 Employment projections; and a summary which assesses the outlook for the Scottish labour
    market in 1981 on the basis of these projections.
    LanguageEnglish
    Pages38-54
    Number of pages17
    JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
    Volume3
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - Jul 1977

    Fingerprint

    labor force
    projection
    labor supply
    migration
    macroaggregate
    scaling
    labor market
    social isolation
    forecast
    labour force
    Labor force
    death
    participation
    time
    Group
    Labour market
    Labor supply
    Scotland

    Keywords

    • labour force projections
    • Scottish labour market trends
    • unemployment patterns
    • emigration rates
    • migration analysis
    • population change
    • Scottish economy

    Cite this

    Bell, D. N. F., & Kirwan, F. X. (1977). Population, employment and labour force projections. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 3(1), 38-54.
    Bell, David N. F. ; Kirwan, Frank X. / Population, employment and labour force projections. In: Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1977 ; Vol. 3, No. 1. pp. 38-54.
    @article{4267a742738f4bd7818081dd3b4897a7,
    title = "Population, employment and labour force projections",
    abstract = "The population of Scotland evolves over time under the combined influence of births, deaths and migration. Given appropriate assumptions about these three factors, population forecasts may be generated and analysed. Such forecasts are published annually in Scotland by the Office of the Registrar General. (1976a). These forecasts may be converted into an estimate of labour supply by scaling by the participation rates of the various age-sex groups. Such estimates are published from time to time in the Department of Employment Gazette (see for example pp 1258-63 December 1975). Occasionally an attempt is made toidentify sectors in which the increased labour supply might be absorbed, (e.g. Department of Employment Gazette, July 1975) Heretofore, these three macro-aggregates have been forecast and analysed in isolation. However, it is the aim of this study to draw these forecasts together in order to present a possible outline of the Scottish labour market in mid 1981, and to explore the sensitivity of the resulting projections to alternative migration assumptions. The paper consists of three parts:- 1 Population projections; 2 Labour force projections; 3 Employment projections; and a summary which assesses the outlook for the Scottish labourmarket in 1981 on the basis of these projections.",
    keywords = "labour force projections, Scottish labour market trends, unemployment patterns, emigration rates, migration analysis, population change, Scottish economy",
    author = "Bell, {David N. F.} and Kirwan, {Frank X.}",
    year = "1977",
    month = "7",
    language = "English",
    volume = "3",
    pages = "38--54",
    journal = "Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary",
    issn = "2046-5378",
    publisher = "University of Strathclyde",
    number = "1",

    }

    Bell, DNF & Kirwan, FX 1977, 'Population, employment and labour force projections' Quarterly Economic Commentary, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 38-54.

    Population, employment and labour force projections. / Bell, David N. F.; Kirwan, Frank X.

    In: Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol. 3, No. 1, 07.1977, p. 38-54.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Population, employment and labour force projections

    AU - Bell, David N. F.

    AU - Kirwan, Frank X.

    PY - 1977/7

    Y1 - 1977/7

    N2 - The population of Scotland evolves over time under the combined influence of births, deaths and migration. Given appropriate assumptions about these three factors, population forecasts may be generated and analysed. Such forecasts are published annually in Scotland by the Office of the Registrar General. (1976a). These forecasts may be converted into an estimate of labour supply by scaling by the participation rates of the various age-sex groups. Such estimates are published from time to time in the Department of Employment Gazette (see for example pp 1258-63 December 1975). Occasionally an attempt is made toidentify sectors in which the increased labour supply might be absorbed, (e.g. Department of Employment Gazette, July 1975) Heretofore, these three macro-aggregates have been forecast and analysed in isolation. However, it is the aim of this study to draw these forecasts together in order to present a possible outline of the Scottish labour market in mid 1981, and to explore the sensitivity of the resulting projections to alternative migration assumptions. The paper consists of three parts:- 1 Population projections; 2 Labour force projections; 3 Employment projections; and a summary which assesses the outlook for the Scottish labourmarket in 1981 on the basis of these projections.

    AB - The population of Scotland evolves over time under the combined influence of births, deaths and migration. Given appropriate assumptions about these three factors, population forecasts may be generated and analysed. Such forecasts are published annually in Scotland by the Office of the Registrar General. (1976a). These forecasts may be converted into an estimate of labour supply by scaling by the participation rates of the various age-sex groups. Such estimates are published from time to time in the Department of Employment Gazette (see for example pp 1258-63 December 1975). Occasionally an attempt is made toidentify sectors in which the increased labour supply might be absorbed, (e.g. Department of Employment Gazette, July 1975) Heretofore, these three macro-aggregates have been forecast and analysed in isolation. However, it is the aim of this study to draw these forecasts together in order to present a possible outline of the Scottish labour market in mid 1981, and to explore the sensitivity of the resulting projections to alternative migration assumptions. The paper consists of three parts:- 1 Population projections; 2 Labour force projections; 3 Employment projections; and a summary which assesses the outlook for the Scottish labourmarket in 1981 on the basis of these projections.

    KW - labour force projections

    KW - Scottish labour market trends

    KW - unemployment patterns

    KW - emigration rates

    KW - migration analysis

    KW - population change

    KW - Scottish economy

    UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/frasercommentary/

    UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/fraser/

    M3 - Article

    VL - 3

    SP - 38

    EP - 54

    JO - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

    T2 - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

    JF - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

    SN - 2046-5378

    IS - 1

    ER -