Population, employment and labour force projections

David N.F. Bell, Frank X. Kirwan, David N.F. Bell (Editor)

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    In a previous issue of this Commentary (July 1977, Vol.3. No.1) some projections of
    Scottish population and labour force were made. Required rates of new job creation were evaluated, given a target of 5% unemployment by 1981. This present article updates the earlier study, extending it in two main directions. Firstly, the migration forecasts, rather than spanning a range of possible outcomes, are derived directly from an econometric forecast of the Scottish economy over the next few years. Secondly, the projection period over which the forecasts are made is extended considerably; to 1993 as far as population and labour supply are concerned. The paper is divided into two sections, the first dealing with the methodology underlying the projections, while the second discusses results and implications.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)35-43
    Number of pages9
    JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - Jul 1979


    • population trends
    • employment patterns
    • labour force projections
    • employment modelling
    • Scottish economy


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