Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

88 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An evaluation of the risk to an exposed element from a hazardous event requires a consideration of the element's vulnerability, which expresses its propensity to suffer damage. This concept allows the assessed level of hazard to be translated to an estimated level of risk and is often used to evaluate the risk from earthquakes and cyclones. However, for other natural perils, such as mass movements, coastal erosion and volcanoes, the incorporation of vulnerability within risk assessment is not well established and consequently quantitative risk estimations are not often made. This impedes the study of the relative contributions from different hazards to the overall risk at a site. Physical vulnerability is poorly modelled for many reasons: the cause of human casualties (from the event itself rather than by building damage); lack of observational data on the hazard, the elements at risk and the induced damage; the complexity of the structural damage mechanisms; the temporal and geographical scales; and the ability to modify the hazard level. Many of these causes are related to the nature of the peril therefore for some hazards, such as coastal erosion, the benefits of considering an element's physical vulnerability may be limited. However, for hazards such as volcanoes and mass movements the modelling of vulnerability should be improved by, for example, following the efforts made in earthquake risk assessment. For example, additional observational data on induced building damage and the hazardous event should be routinely collected and correlated and also numerical modelling of building behaviour during a damaging event should be attempted.

LanguageEnglish
Pages283-288
Number of pages6
JournalNatural Hazards and Earth System Science
Volume7
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Apr 2007

Fingerprint

natural hazard
vulnerability
risk assessment
hazard
damage
modeling
coastal erosion
mass movement
volcano
earthquake
cyclone

Keywords

  • natural hazard
  • numerical model
  • risk assessment
  • vulnerability

Cite this

@article{7e5b4da899824f5da9b1ba2a48e138b5,
title = "Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment",
abstract = "An evaluation of the risk to an exposed element from a hazardous event requires a consideration of the element's vulnerability, which expresses its propensity to suffer damage. This concept allows the assessed level of hazard to be translated to an estimated level of risk and is often used to evaluate the risk from earthquakes and cyclones. However, for other natural perils, such as mass movements, coastal erosion and volcanoes, the incorporation of vulnerability within risk assessment is not well established and consequently quantitative risk estimations are not often made. This impedes the study of the relative contributions from different hazards to the overall risk at a site. Physical vulnerability is poorly modelled for many reasons: the cause of human casualties (from the event itself rather than by building damage); lack of observational data on the hazard, the elements at risk and the induced damage; the complexity of the structural damage mechanisms; the temporal and geographical scales; and the ability to modify the hazard level. Many of these causes are related to the nature of the peril therefore for some hazards, such as coastal erosion, the benefits of considering an element's physical vulnerability may be limited. However, for hazards such as volcanoes and mass movements the modelling of vulnerability should be improved by, for example, following the efforts made in earthquake risk assessment. For example, additional observational data on induced building damage and the hazardous event should be routinely collected and correlated and also numerical modelling of building behaviour during a damaging event should be attempted.",
keywords = "natural hazard, numerical model, risk assessment, vulnerability",
author = "J. Douglas",
year = "2007",
month = "4",
day = "5",
doi = "10.5194/nhess-7-283-2007",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
pages = "283--288",
journal = "Natural Hazards and Earth System Science",
issn = "1561-8633",
number = "2",

}

Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment. / Douglas, J.

In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 7, No. 2, 05.04.2007, p. 283-288.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment

AU - Douglas, J.

PY - 2007/4/5

Y1 - 2007/4/5

N2 - An evaluation of the risk to an exposed element from a hazardous event requires a consideration of the element's vulnerability, which expresses its propensity to suffer damage. This concept allows the assessed level of hazard to be translated to an estimated level of risk and is often used to evaluate the risk from earthquakes and cyclones. However, for other natural perils, such as mass movements, coastal erosion and volcanoes, the incorporation of vulnerability within risk assessment is not well established and consequently quantitative risk estimations are not often made. This impedes the study of the relative contributions from different hazards to the overall risk at a site. Physical vulnerability is poorly modelled for many reasons: the cause of human casualties (from the event itself rather than by building damage); lack of observational data on the hazard, the elements at risk and the induced damage; the complexity of the structural damage mechanisms; the temporal and geographical scales; and the ability to modify the hazard level. Many of these causes are related to the nature of the peril therefore for some hazards, such as coastal erosion, the benefits of considering an element's physical vulnerability may be limited. However, for hazards such as volcanoes and mass movements the modelling of vulnerability should be improved by, for example, following the efforts made in earthquake risk assessment. For example, additional observational data on induced building damage and the hazardous event should be routinely collected and correlated and also numerical modelling of building behaviour during a damaging event should be attempted.

AB - An evaluation of the risk to an exposed element from a hazardous event requires a consideration of the element's vulnerability, which expresses its propensity to suffer damage. This concept allows the assessed level of hazard to be translated to an estimated level of risk and is often used to evaluate the risk from earthquakes and cyclones. However, for other natural perils, such as mass movements, coastal erosion and volcanoes, the incorporation of vulnerability within risk assessment is not well established and consequently quantitative risk estimations are not often made. This impedes the study of the relative contributions from different hazards to the overall risk at a site. Physical vulnerability is poorly modelled for many reasons: the cause of human casualties (from the event itself rather than by building damage); lack of observational data on the hazard, the elements at risk and the induced damage; the complexity of the structural damage mechanisms; the temporal and geographical scales; and the ability to modify the hazard level. Many of these causes are related to the nature of the peril therefore for some hazards, such as coastal erosion, the benefits of considering an element's physical vulnerability may be limited. However, for hazards such as volcanoes and mass movements the modelling of vulnerability should be improved by, for example, following the efforts made in earthquake risk assessment. For example, additional observational data on induced building damage and the hazardous event should be routinely collected and correlated and also numerical modelling of building behaviour during a damaging event should be attempted.

KW - natural hazard

KW - numerical model

KW - risk assessment

KW - vulnerability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34147167169&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.natural-hazards-and-earth-system-sciences.net/index.html

U2 - 10.5194/nhess-7-283-2007

DO - 10.5194/nhess-7-283-2007

M3 - Article

VL - 7

SP - 283

EP - 288

JO - Natural Hazards and Earth System Science

T2 - Natural Hazards and Earth System Science

JF - Natural Hazards and Earth System Science

SN - 1561-8633

IS - 2

ER -