Perceived environmental uncertainty in scenario planning

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

40 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Scenario planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences the micro-external as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper reviews the most dominant theories on scenario planning process and PEU, developing three propositions for the practice of scenario planning process. Furthermore, it shows how these propositions can be integrated in the scenario planning process in order to improve the development of strategy.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)338-345
Number of pages8
JournalFutures
Volume44
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2012

Keywords

  • scenario planning
  • planning process
  • environmental management
  • planning system
  • uncertainty analysis

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