Outlook and appraisal [September 1989]

Brian Ashcroft, Neil Dourmashkin, Paul Draper, Stewart Dunlop, Cliff Lockyer, Lesley Magee, Eleanor Malloy, Eric McRory, Claire Monaghan, Peter McGregor, Roger Perman, Brian Ashcroft (Editor), Jim Love (Editor)

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The medium-term prospects for both the Scottish and British economies have clouded considerably during the last few days as it became clear that holders of sterling are beginning to lose confidence in the British economy. This loss of confidence reflects doubts about both the Chancellor's economic strategy and the ability of the economy to sustain an improvement in the current account of the balance of payments at the going sterling exchange rate. In the short-term the Scottish economy continues to bear up relatively well to the earlier interest rate rises. The growth rate is slowing down but less so than expected with sectors such as retailing and construction still remaining relatively buoyant up here compared with the UK as a whole. However, the low level of business confidence in manufacturing does not augur well for the prospects of avoiding a recession; prospects which have undoubtedly worsened following the increase in base rates to 15% and the blow to business confidence of falling share prices. Finally, further revisions to the employment data are less favourable to the government's view that employment in Scotland has benefited considerably from the upsurge in economic activity in 1987 and 1988.
LanguageEnglish
Pagesi-ii
Number of pages2
JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
Volume15
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Sep 1989

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Confidence
Balance of payments
Interest rates
Recession
Exchange rates
Current account
Government
Share prices
Economic activity
Scotland
Retailing
Manufacturing
Economic strategy

Keywords

  • economic forecasts
  • Scottish economic trends
  • Scotland
  • labour market conditions
  • industrial output

Cite this

Ashcroft, B., Dourmashkin, N., Draper, P., Dunlop, S., Lockyer, C., Magee, L., ... Love, J. (Ed.) (1989). Outlook and appraisal [September 1989]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 15(1), i-ii.
Ashcroft, Brian ; Dourmashkin, Neil ; Draper, Paul ; Dunlop, Stewart ; Lockyer, Cliff ; Magee, Lesley ; Malloy, Eleanor ; McRory, Eric ; Monaghan, Claire ; McGregor, Peter ; Perman, Roger ; Ashcroft, Brian (Editor) ; Love, Jim (Editor). / Outlook and appraisal [September 1989]. In: Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1989 ; Vol. 15, No. 1. pp. i-ii.
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Ashcroft, B, Dourmashkin, N, Draper, P, Dunlop, S, Lockyer, C, Magee, L, Malloy, E, McRory, E, Monaghan, C, McGregor, P, Perman, R, Ashcroft, B (ed.) & Love, J (ed.) 1989, 'Outlook and appraisal [September 1989]' Quarterly Economic Commentary, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. i-ii.

Outlook and appraisal [September 1989]. / Ashcroft, Brian; Dourmashkin, Neil; Draper, Paul; Dunlop, Stewart; Lockyer, Cliff; Magee, Lesley; Malloy, Eleanor; McRory, Eric; Monaghan, Claire; McGregor, Peter; Perman, Roger; Ashcroft, Brian (Editor); Love, Jim (Editor).

In: Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol. 15, No. 1, 09.1989, p. i-ii.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Ashcroft B, Dourmashkin N, Draper P, Dunlop S, Lockyer C, Magee L et al. Outlook and appraisal [September 1989]. Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1989 Sep;15(1):i-ii.