Outlook and appraisal [September 1988]

The Scottish economy continues to perform well. Industrial production remains buoyant, although it is now clear that production has been growing at a lower rate than earlier statistics suggested. In the labour market, the improved output performance has yet to be reflected in a significant increase in net employment. Short term prospects for output growth are nonetheless favourable. But beyond the next three months, the outlook for the Scottish economy depends largely on the outcome of government actions to moderate the pace of growth of UK domestic demand. Policy action to date leaves some cause for concern. Swingeing increases in interest rates are questionable in terms of both the nature and the timing of their effects.