Outlook and appraisal [March 1992]

Jim Love, Brian Ashcroft, Richard Brooks, Paul Draper, Stewart Dunlop, Kevin Leif, Cliff Lockyer, Eleanor Malloy, Mark McFarland, Peter McGregor, Iain McNicoll, Eric McRory, Roger Perman, Jim Stevens, Kim Swales, Ya Ping Yin, Jim Love (Editor), Fraser of Allander Institute

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Abstract

This brief article provides an overview of the economic outlook based on the latest economic data. Economic prospects over the last quarter have not improved, and have shown signs of worsening in some areas. Recovery from the persistent and lengthy recession is unlikely to become apparent until the second half of this year. Provisional figures for the fourth quarter of last year indicate that UK gross domestic product fell by 0.3%. Unless subject to an unusually large upward revision, this means that non-oil GDP has fallen for six successive quarters, the longest recession since the Second World War. While still less deep overall than the 1979-81 recession, the extent of the present slump should not be underestimated. For example, in 1991 GDP declined by 2.5%, the largest decline in a single calendar year for sixty years. Investment spending has also been badly hit over the last year; capital expenditure by UK manufacturing industry fell by 15% in 1991, and was still declining in the final quarter of last year. The cumulative amount of outstanding consumer credit (excluding bank loans) has fallen every month from August last year to January, and retail sales are struggling to show any signs of upward movement.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-2
Number of pages2
JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
Volume17
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Mar 1992

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Recession
Economics
Bank loans
Consumer credit
Calendar
Gross domestic product
Manufacturing industries
Economic data
Capital expenditures
Retail

Keywords

  • British economic trends
  • economic forecasts
  • economic performance

Cite this

Love, J., Ashcroft, B., Brooks, R., Draper, P., Dunlop, S., Leif, K., ... Fraser of Allander Institute (1992). Outlook and appraisal [March 1992]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 17(3), 1-2.
Love, Jim ; Ashcroft, Brian ; Brooks, Richard ; Draper, Paul ; Dunlop, Stewart ; Leif, Kevin ; Lockyer, Cliff ; Malloy, Eleanor ; McFarland, Mark ; McGregor, Peter ; McNicoll, Iain ; McRory, Eric ; Perman, Roger ; Stevens, Jim ; Swales, Kim ; Yin, Ya Ping ; Love, Jim (Editor) ; Fraser of Allander Institute. / Outlook and appraisal [March 1992]. In: Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1992 ; Vol. 17, No. 3. pp. 1-2.
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abstract = "This brief article provides an overview of the economic outlook based on the latest economic data. Economic prospects over the last quarter have not improved, and have shown signs of worsening in some areas. Recovery from the persistent and lengthy recession is unlikely to become apparent until the second half of this year. Provisional figures for the fourth quarter of last year indicate that UK gross domestic product fell by 0.3{\%}. Unless subject to an unusually large upward revision, this means that non-oil GDP has fallen for six successive quarters, the longest recession since the Second World War. While still less deep overall than the 1979-81 recession, the extent of the present slump should not be underestimated. For example, in 1991 GDP declined by 2.5{\%}, the largest decline in a single calendar year for sixty years. Investment spending has also been badly hit over the last year; capital expenditure by UK manufacturing industry fell by 15{\%} in 1991, and was still declining in the final quarter of last year. The cumulative amount of outstanding consumer credit (excluding bank loans) has fallen every month from August last year to January, and retail sales are struggling to show any signs of upward movement.",
keywords = "British economic trends, economic forecasts, economic performance",
author = "Jim Love and Brian Ashcroft and Richard Brooks and Paul Draper and Stewart Dunlop and Kevin Leif and Cliff Lockyer and Eleanor Malloy and Mark McFarland and Peter McGregor and Iain McNicoll and Eric McRory and Roger Perman and Jim Stevens and Kim Swales and Yin, {Ya Ping} and Jim Love and {Fraser of Allander Institute}",
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Love, J, Ashcroft, B, Brooks, R, Draper, P, Dunlop, S, Leif, K, Lockyer, C, Malloy, E, McFarland, M, McGregor, P, McNicoll, I, McRory, E, Perman, R, Stevens, J, Swales, K, Yin, YP, Love, J (ed.) & Fraser of Allander Institute 1992, 'Outlook and appraisal [March 1992]', Quarterly Economic Commentary, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 1-2.

Outlook and appraisal [March 1992]. / Love, Jim; Ashcroft, Brian; Brooks, Richard; Draper, Paul; Dunlop, Stewart; Leif, Kevin; Lockyer, Cliff; Malloy, Eleanor; McFarland, Mark; McGregor, Peter; McNicoll, Iain; McRory, Eric; Perman, Roger; Stevens, Jim; Swales, Kim; Yin, Ya Ping; Love, Jim (Editor); Fraser of Allander Institute.

In: Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol. 17, No. 3, 03.1992, p. 1-2.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - McFarland, Mark

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AU - Perman, Roger

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AB - This brief article provides an overview of the economic outlook based on the latest economic data. Economic prospects over the last quarter have not improved, and have shown signs of worsening in some areas. Recovery from the persistent and lengthy recession is unlikely to become apparent until the second half of this year. Provisional figures for the fourth quarter of last year indicate that UK gross domestic product fell by 0.3%. Unless subject to an unusually large upward revision, this means that non-oil GDP has fallen for six successive quarters, the longest recession since the Second World War. While still less deep overall than the 1979-81 recession, the extent of the present slump should not be underestimated. For example, in 1991 GDP declined by 2.5%, the largest decline in a single calendar year for sixty years. Investment spending has also been badly hit over the last year; capital expenditure by UK manufacturing industry fell by 15% in 1991, and was still declining in the final quarter of last year. The cumulative amount of outstanding consumer credit (excluding bank loans) has fallen every month from August last year to January, and retail sales are struggling to show any signs of upward movement.

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Love J, Ashcroft B, Brooks R, Draper P, Dunlop S, Leif K et al. Outlook and appraisal [March 1992]. Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1992 Mar;17(3):1-2.