Outlook and appraisal [March 1991]

Jim Love, Brian Ashcroft, Richard Brooks, Neil Dourmashkin, Paul Draper, Stewart Dunlop, Cliff Lockyer, Eleanor Malloy, Claire Monaghan, Peter McGregor, Iain McNicoll, Eric McRory, Roger Perman, Kim Swales, James Love (Editor), Fraser of Allander Institute

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Against the background of a moderate and relatively stable oil price the idea of a 'global recession' seems unduly pessimstic. Growth in Japan and Germany, the main powerhouses of the major industrialised countries (the G7), is
undoubtedly slowing down, largely the result of tightening monetary policy in the wake of increased inflationary pressure. But outright recession is largely confined to the English speaking world, and especially to the United States and the UK (see World Economy section). While this is unpleasant, its effects should not be overstated. Assuming the GATT talks do not end in complete disarray, world trade growth, an important component of economic growth, should be
between 4% and 5% in 1991. This is below the growth rates recorded in 1989 and 1990, but should still ensure modest GDP growth for the G7 countries as a whole, with the prospect of a reasonable recovery in 1992.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1-2
Number of pages2
JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
Volume16
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Mar 1991

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G-7 countries
Developed countries
World trade
GDP growth
Japan
World economy
Monetary policy
Oil prices
Recession
Global recession
Economic growth
Germany

Keywords

  • economic forecasts
  • Scottish economic trends

Cite this

Fraser of Allander Institute (1991). Outlook and appraisal [March 1991]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 16(3), 1-2.
Fraser of Allander Institute. / Outlook and appraisal [March 1991]. In: Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1991 ; Vol. 16, No. 3. pp. 1-2.
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Fraser of Allander Institute 1991, 'Outlook and appraisal [March 1991]' Quarterly Economic Commentary, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 1-2.

Outlook and appraisal [March 1991]. / Fraser of Allander Institute.

In: Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol. 16, No. 3, 03.1991, p. 1-2.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - Outlook and appraisal [March 1991]

AU - Love, Jim

AU - Ashcroft, Brian

AU - Brooks, Richard

AU - Dourmashkin, Neil

AU - Draper, Paul

AU - Dunlop, Stewart

AU - Lockyer, Cliff

AU - Malloy, Eleanor

AU - Monaghan, Claire

AU - McGregor, Peter

AU - McNicoll, Iain

AU - McRory, Eric

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AU - Swales, Kim

AU - Fraser of Allander Institute

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Fraser of Allander Institute. Outlook and appraisal [March 1991]. Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1991 Mar;16(3):1-2.