Out-of-sample validation of judgemental and statistical forecasts of antimicrobial resistance

Original language	English
Publication status	Published - 27 Jun 2024
Event	European Safety and Reliability Conference: Advances in Reliability, Safety and Security - Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland Duration: 23 Jun 2024 → 27 Jun 2024 Conference number: 34 https://esrel2024.com/

Conference

Conference	European Safety and Reliability Conference
Abbreviated title	ESREL 2024
Country/Territory	Poland
City	Cracow
Period	23/06/24 → 27/06/24
Internet address	https://esrel2024.com/

Keywords

• expert judgement
• expert elicitation
• judgemental forecasting
• antimicrobial resistance

Access to Document

• https://esrel2024.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/ea2/out-of-sample-validation-of-judgemental-and-statistical-forecasts-of-antimicrobial-resistance.pdf

Other files and links

• https://esrel2024.com/

Projects

Projects per year 2014 2014 2018 2022

• 2 Finished

Projects per year

• Responsive Operational Research Facility (Full Stage)

  Colson, A., Megiddo, I. & Morton, A.

  Department of Health and Social Care

  1/06/18 → 30/06/22

  Project: Research

• DRIVE-AB: Driving Re-investment in R&D and Responsible Antibiotic Use (FP7 IMI)

  Morton, A., Bedford, T. & Cooke, R.

  European Commission - Other

  1/10/14 → 30/09/17

  Project: Research

  • Antibiotic Resistance 100%
  • Antibiotics 80%
  • Risk Assessment 66%
  • Dependent Personality Disorder 66%
  • Decision Making 66%

Datasets

• Expert Judgment Evaluation of the Future Risk of Antimicrobial Resistance

  Colson, A. (Creator), University of Strathclyde, 6 Sept 2017

  DOI: 10.15129/953210ee-27c0-4042-8fd6-f1c5b7325eae, http://www.lighttwist.net/wp/excalibur

  Dataset

Research output

Research output per year 2017 2017 2018 2018

• 1 Poster
• 1 Article

Research output per year

Research output per year

• Expert elicitation: using the classical model to validate experts' judgments

  Colson, A. R. & Cooke, R. M., 28 Feb 2018, In: Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 12, 1, p. 113–132 20 p.

  Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

  Open Access

  File

  • Expert Judgment 100%
  • Models 100%
  • Elicitation 100%
  • Judgement 100%
  • Validation 28%
  89 Citations (Scopus)

  65 Downloads (Pure)

• Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance

  Colson, A., Megiddo, I., Alvarez-Uria, G., Gandra, S., Bedford, T., Morton, A. D. & Laxminarayan, R., 5 Sept 2017.

  Research output: Contribution to conference › Poster

  • Antimicrobials 100%

Activities

Activities per year 2017 2017 2022 2022

• 3 Invited talk
• 2 Policy Outreach
• 1 Oral presentation

Activities per year

• Antimicrobial Resistance Data-Action Taskforce

  Itamar Megiddo (Advisor)

  Oct 2022

  Activity: Public Engagement and Outreach › Policy Outreach

• Antimicrobial Resistance: Developing and testing innovative models for the evaluation and purchase of antimicrobials [Workshop]

  Itamar Megiddo (Advisor)

  Aug 2022

  Activity: Public Engagement and Outreach › Policy Outreach

• Methodology for estimating the private and societal values of antimicrobials

  Itamar Megiddo (Speaker)

  Jul 2020

  Activity: Talk or presentation types › Oral presentation

View all 6 activities

Cite this

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• RIS
• Vancouver

Colson, A., & Megiddo, I. (2024). Out-of-sample validation of judgemental and statistical forecasts of antimicrobial resistance. European Safety and Reliability Conference, Cracow, Poland. https://esrel2024.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/ea2/out-of-sample-validation-of-judgemental-and-statistical-forecasts-of-antimicrobial-resistance.pdf

Colson, Abigail ; Megiddo, Itamar. / Out-of-sample validation of judgemental and statistical forecasts of antimicrobial resistance. European Safety and Reliability Conference, Cracow, Poland.

@conference{5d07218f031b41bc8b0f4b6b216427be,

title = "Out-of-sample validation of judgemental and statistical forecasts of antimicrobial resistance",

keywords = "expert judgement, expert elicitation, judgemental forecasting, antimicrobial resistance",

author = "Abigail Colson and Itamar Megiddo",

year = "2024",

month = jun,

day = "27",

language = "English",

note = "European Safety and Reliability Conference : Advances in Reliability, Safety and Security, ESREL 2024 ; Conference date: 23-06-2024 Through 27-06-2024",

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}

Colson, A & Megiddo, I 2024, 'Out-of-sample validation of judgemental and statistical forecasts of antimicrobial resistance', European Safety and Reliability Conference, Cracow, Poland, 23/06/24 - 27/06/24. <https://esrel2024.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/ea2/out-of-sample-validation-of-judgemental-and-statistical-forecasts-of-antimicrobial-resistance.pdf>

Out-of-sample validation of judgemental and statistical forecasts of antimicrobial resistance. / Colson, Abigail; Megiddo, Itamar.
2024. European Safety and Reliability Conference, Cracow, Poland.

Research output: Contribution to conference › Proceeding › peer-review

TY - CONF

T1 - Out-of-sample validation of judgemental and statistical forecasts of antimicrobial resistance

AU - Colson, Abigail

AU - Megiddo, Itamar

N1 - Conference code: 34

PY - 2024/6/27

Y1 - 2024/6/27

KW - expert judgement

KW - expert elicitation

KW - judgemental forecasting

KW - antimicrobial resistance

UR - https://esrel2024.com/

M3 - Proceeding

T2 - European Safety and Reliability Conference

Y2 - 23 June 2024 through 27 June 2024

ER -

Colson A, Megiddo I. Out-of-sample validation of judgemental and statistical forecasts of antimicrobial resistance. 2024. European Safety and Reliability Conference, Cracow, Poland.