Optimal smoothing for trend removal in short term electricity demand forecasting

David Infield, Hill, D.C.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

71 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Changes to the electricity supply industry, in particular the progress towards deregulation, have prompted an increased interest in short-term electricity demand forecasting. Trend removal has been identified as a key element in forecasting, and perhaps the area that can most benefit from the application of advanced time series analysis. A new approach to trend removal is presented based on fixed interval, or optimal, smoothing techiques. Forecasts derived in this way are compared with more conventional approaches. Preliminary results indicate the new method to be promising and deserving of further development.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1115-1120
Number of pages6
JournalIEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Volume13
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 1998

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Electricity
Time series analysis
Deregulation
Electric utilities

Keywords

  • forecasting
  • electricity demand
  • optimisation
  • electricity supply industry
  • fixed interval smoothing techiques

Cite this

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abstract = "Changes to the electricity supply industry, in particular the progress towards deregulation, have prompted an increased interest in short-term electricity demand forecasting. Trend removal has been identified as a key element in forecasting, and perhaps the area that can most benefit from the application of advanced time series analysis. A new approach to trend removal is presented based on fixed interval, or optimal, smoothing techiques. Forecasts derived in this way are compared with more conventional approaches. Preliminary results indicate the new method to be promising and deserving of further development.",
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Optimal smoothing for trend removal in short term electricity demand forecasting. / Infield, David; Hill, D.C.

In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 3, 08.1998, p. 1115-1120.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Hill, D.C.

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KW - forecasting

KW - electricity demand

KW - optimisation

KW - electricity supply industry

KW - fixed interval smoothing techiques

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JF - IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

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