One-health simulation modelling: assessment of control strategies against the spread of influenza between swine and human populations using NAADSM

S. Dorjee, C. W. Revie, Z. Poljak, W. B. Mcnab, J. T. Mcclure, J. Sanchez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Simulation models implemented using a range of parameters offer a useful approach to identifying effective disease intervention strategies. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of key control strategies to mitigate the simultaneous spread of influenza among and between swine and human populations. We used the pandemic H1N1 2009 virus as a case study. The study population included swine herds (488 herds) and households-of-people (29 707 households) within a county in Ontario, Canada. Households were categorized as: (i) rural households with swine workers, (ii) rural households without swine workers and (iii) urban households without swine workers. Seventy-two scenarios were investigated based on a combination of the parameters of speed of detection and control strategies, such as quarantine strategy, effectiveness of movement restriction and ring vaccination strategy, all assessed at three levels of transmissibility of the virus at the swine-human interface. Results showed that the speed of detection of the infected units combined with the quarantine strategy had the largest impact on the duration and size of outbreaks. A combination of fast to moderate speed of the detection (where infected units were detected within 5-10 days since first infection) and quarantine of the detected units alone contained the outbreak within the swine population in most of the simulated outbreaks. Ring vaccination had no added beneficial effect. In conclusion, our study suggests that the early detection (and therefore effective surveillance) and effective quarantine had the largest impact in the control of the influenza spread, consistent with earlier studies. To our knowledge, no study had previously assessed the impact of the combination of different intervention strategies involving the simultaneous spread of influenza between swine and human populations.

LanguageEnglish
Pagese229-e244
Number of pages16
JournalTransboundary and Emerging Diseases
Volume63
Issue number2
Early online date15 Sep 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Apr 2016
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

influenza
human population
Human Influenza
Swine
Quarantine
households
swine
Health
quarantine
Population
Disease Outbreaks
Vaccination
herds
vaccination
H1N1 Subtype Influenza A Virus
Ontario
Pandemics
pandemic
Influenza A virus
Canada

Keywords

  • humans
  • influenza
  • modelling
  • NAADSM
  • one-health
  • pigs
  • zoonotic diseases

Cite this

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abstract = "Simulation models implemented using a range of parameters offer a useful approach to identifying effective disease intervention strategies. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of key control strategies to mitigate the simultaneous spread of influenza among and between swine and human populations. We used the pandemic H1N1 2009 virus as a case study. The study population included swine herds (488 herds) and households-of-people (29 707 households) within a county in Ontario, Canada. Households were categorized as: (i) rural households with swine workers, (ii) rural households without swine workers and (iii) urban households without swine workers. Seventy-two scenarios were investigated based on a combination of the parameters of speed of detection and control strategies, such as quarantine strategy, effectiveness of movement restriction and ring vaccination strategy, all assessed at three levels of transmissibility of the virus at the swine-human interface. Results showed that the speed of detection of the infected units combined with the quarantine strategy had the largest impact on the duration and size of outbreaks. A combination of fast to moderate speed of the detection (where infected units were detected within 5-10 days since first infection) and quarantine of the detected units alone contained the outbreak within the swine population in most of the simulated outbreaks. Ring vaccination had no added beneficial effect. In conclusion, our study suggests that the early detection (and therefore effective surveillance) and effective quarantine had the largest impact in the control of the influenza spread, consistent with earlier studies. To our knowledge, no study had previously assessed the impact of the combination of different intervention strategies involving the simultaneous spread of influenza between swine and human populations.",
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One-health simulation modelling : assessment of control strategies against the spread of influenza between swine and human populations using NAADSM. / Dorjee, S.; Revie, C. W.; Poljak, Z.; Mcnab, W. B.; Mcclure, J. T.; Sanchez, J.

In: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, Vol. 63, No. 2, 30.04.2016, p. e229-e244.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Revie, C. W.

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