On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics

Massimiliano Vasile; Chiara Tardioli

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_6

On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics

Massimiliano Vasile, Chiara Tardioli

Mechanical And Aerospace Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

4 Citations (Scopus)

46 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The paper presents the use of positive polynomials, in particular Bernstein polynomials, to represent families of probability distributions in orbital dynamics. The uncertainty in model parameters and initial conditions is modeled with p-boxes to account for imprecision and lack of knowledge. The resulting uncertainty in the quantity of interest is estimated by representing the upper and lower expectations with positive polynomials with interval coefficients. The impact probability of an asteroid subject to a partially known Yarkovsky effect is used as an illustrative example.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Stardust Final Conference
Subtitle of host publication	Advances in Asteroids and Space Debris Engineering and Science
Editors	Massimiliano Vasile, Edmondo Minisci, Leopold Summerer, Peter McGinty
Place of Publication	Cham
Publisher	Springer
Pages	99-107
Number of pages	9
ISBN (Print)	9783319699554, 9783319699561
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_6
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 11 Feb 2018
Event	Stardust Final Conference on Asteroids and Space Debris - ESA-ESTEC, Netherlands Duration: 31 Oct 2016 → 3 Nov 2016 https://www.stardust2013.eu/Training/Conferences/StardustFinalConference/tabid/5484/Default.aspx

Publication series

Name	Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings
Publisher	Springer
Volume	52
ISSN (Print)	1570-6591

Conference

Conference	Stardust Final Conference on Asteroids and Space Debris
Country/Territory	Netherlands
Period	31/10/16 → 3/11/16
Internet address	https://www.stardust2013.eu/Training/Conferences/StardustFinalConference/tabid/5484/Default.aspx

Keywords

positive polynomials
Bernstein polynomials
orbital dynamics
impact probability
Yarkovsky effect

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_6

Vasile-Tardioli-Stardust-Conference-2018-use-of-positive-polynomials-for-the-estimation-of-upper-and-lower-expectations-in-orbital-dynamicsAccepted author manuscript, 151 KB

Cite this

Vasile, M., & Tardioli, C. (2018). On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics. In M. Vasile, E. Minisci, L. Summerer, & P. McGinty (Eds.), Stardust Final Conference: Advances in Asteroids and Space Debris Engineering and Science (pp. 99-107). (Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings; Vol. 52). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_6

Vasile, Massimiliano ; Tardioli, Chiara. / On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics. Stardust Final Conference: Advances in Asteroids and Space Debris Engineering and Science. editor / Massimiliano Vasile ; Edmondo Minisci ; Leopold Summerer ; Peter McGinty. Cham : Springer, 2018. pp. 99-107 (Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings).

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Vasile, M & Tardioli, C 2018, On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics. in M Vasile, E Minisci, L Summerer & P McGinty (eds), Stardust Final Conference: Advances in Asteroids and Space Debris Engineering and Science. Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, vol. 52, Springer, Cham, pp. 99-107, Stardust Final Conference on Asteroids and Space Debris, Netherlands, 31/10/16. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_6

On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics. / Vasile, Massimiliano; Tardioli, Chiara.

Stardust Final Conference: Advances in Asteroids and Space Debris Engineering and Science. ed. / Massimiliano Vasile; Edmondo Minisci; Leopold Summerer; Peter McGinty. Cham : Springer, 2018. p. 99-107 (Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings; Vol. 52).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

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N2 - The paper presents the use of positive polynomials, in particular Bernstein polynomials, to represent families of probability distributions in orbital dynamics. The uncertainty in model parameters and initial conditions is modeled with p-boxes to account for imprecision and lack of knowledge. The resulting uncertainty in the quantity of interest is estimated by representing the upper and lower expectations with positive polynomials with interval coefficients. The impact probability of an asteroid subject to a partially known Yarkovsky effect is used as an illustrative example.

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KW - orbital dynamics

KW - impact probability

KW - Yarkovsky effect

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Vasile M, Tardioli C. On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics. In Vasile M, Minisci E, Summerer L, McGinty P, editors, Stardust Final Conference: Advances in Asteroids and Space Debris Engineering and Science. Cham: Springer. 2018. p. 99-107. (Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings). Epub 2018 Feb 11. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_6

On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Keywords

Access to Document

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Marie Curie ITN (Stardust)

Cite this

On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

Marie Curie ITN (Stardust)

Cite this