On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics

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15 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The paper presents the use of positive polynomials, in particular Bernstein polynomials, to represent families of probability distributions in orbital dynamics. The uncertainty in model parameters and initial conditions is modeled with p-boxes to account for imprecision and lack of knowledge. The resulting uncertainty in the quantity of interest is estimated by representing the upper and lower expectations with positive polynomials with interval coefficients. The impact probability of an asteroid subject to a partially known Yarkovsky effect is used as an illustrative example.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationStardust Final Conference
Subtitle of host publicationAdvances in Asteroids and Space Debris Engineering and Science
EditorsMassimiliano Vasile, Edmondo Minisci, Leopold Summerer, Peter McGinty
Place of PublicationCham
PublisherSpringer
Pages99-107
Number of pages9
ISBN (Print)9783319699554, 9783319699561
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 11 Feb 2018
EventStardust Final Conference on Asteroids and Space Debris - ESA-ESTEC, Netherlands
Duration: 31 Oct 20163 Nov 2016
https://www.stardust2013.eu/Training/Conferences/StardustFinalConference/tabid/5484/Default.aspx

Publication series

NameAstrophysics and Space Science Proceedings
PublisherSpringer
Volume52
ISSN (Print)1570-6591

Conference

ConferenceStardust Final Conference on Asteroids and Space Debris
CountryNetherlands
Period31/10/163/11/16
Internet address

Keywords

  • positive polynomials
  • Bernstein polynomials
  • orbital dynamics
  • impact probability
  • Yarkovsky effect

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  • Projects

    Marie Curie ITN (Stardust)

    Vasile, M., Biggs, J., Burns, D., Hopkins, J., Macdonald, M., McInnes, C., Minisci, E. & Maddock, C.

    European Commission - FP7 - General

    1/02/1331/01/17

    Project: Research

    Cite this

    Vasile, M., & Tardioli, C. (2018). On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics. In M. Vasile, E. Minisci, L. Summerer, & P. McGinty (Eds.), Stardust Final Conference: Advances in Asteroids and Space Debris Engineering and Science (pp. 99-107). (Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings; Vol. 52). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_6