On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia

Christopher J. White, Kathleen L. McInnes, Robert P. Cechet, Stuart P. Corney, Michael R. Grose, Gregory K. Holz, Jack J. Katzfey, Nathaniel L. Bindoff

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

29 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The ability of an ensemble of six GCMs, downscaled to a 0.1° lat/lon grid using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model over Tasmania, Australia, to simulate observed extreme temperature and precipitation climatologies and statewide trends is assessed for 1961-2009 using a suite of extreme indices. The downscaled simulations have high skill in reproducing extreme temperatures, with the majority of models reproducing the statewide averaged sign and magnitude of recent observed trends of increasing warm days and warm nights and decreasing frost days. The warm spell duration index is however underestimated, while variance is generally overrepresented in the extreme temperature range across most regions. The simulations show a lower level of skill in modelling the amplitude of the extreme precipitation indices such as very wet days, but simulate the observed spatial patterns and variability. In general, simulations of dry extreme precipitation indices are underestimated in dryer areas and wet extremes indices are underestimated in wetter areas. Using two SRES emissions scenarios, the simulations indicate a significant increase in warm nights compared to a slightly more moderate increase in warm days, and an increase in maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation intensities interspersed with longer consecutive dry spells across Tasmania during the twenty-first century.

LanguageEnglish
Pages3145-3165
Number of pages21
JournalClimate Dynamics
Volume41
Issue number11-12
Early online date21 Mar 2013
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Dec 2013

Fingerprint

downscaling
temperature
simulation
twenty first century
precipitation intensity
frost
general circulation model
index
modeling
trend

Keywords

  • Australian climate
  • climate change
  • extremes
  • observations
  • projections
  • regional climate models

Cite this

White, Christopher J. ; McInnes, Kathleen L. ; Cechet, Robert P. ; Corney, Stuart P. ; Grose, Michael R. ; Holz, Gregory K. ; Katzfey, Jack J. ; Bindoff, Nathaniel L. / On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia. In: Climate Dynamics. 2013 ; Vol. 41, No. 11-12. pp. 3145-3165.
@article{608a517957b9404db8090aa915a2c71b,
title = "On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia",
abstract = "The ability of an ensemble of six GCMs, downscaled to a 0.1° lat/lon grid using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model over Tasmania, Australia, to simulate observed extreme temperature and precipitation climatologies and statewide trends is assessed for 1961-2009 using a suite of extreme indices. The downscaled simulations have high skill in reproducing extreme temperatures, with the majority of models reproducing the statewide averaged sign and magnitude of recent observed trends of increasing warm days and warm nights and decreasing frost days. The warm spell duration index is however underestimated, while variance is generally overrepresented in the extreme temperature range across most regions. The simulations show a lower level of skill in modelling the amplitude of the extreme precipitation indices such as very wet days, but simulate the observed spatial patterns and variability. In general, simulations of dry extreme precipitation indices are underestimated in dryer areas and wet extremes indices are underestimated in wetter areas. Using two SRES emissions scenarios, the simulations indicate a significant increase in warm nights compared to a slightly more moderate increase in warm days, and an increase in maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation intensities interspersed with longer consecutive dry spells across Tasmania during the twenty-first century.",
keywords = "Australian climate, climate change, extremes, observations, projections, regional climate models",
author = "White, {Christopher J.} and McInnes, {Kathleen L.} and Cechet, {Robert P.} and Corney, {Stuart P.} and Grose, {Michael R.} and Holz, {Gregory K.} and Katzfey, {Jack J.} and Bindoff, {Nathaniel L.}",
year = "2013",
month = "12",
day = "31",
doi = "10.1007/s00382-013-1718-8",
language = "English",
volume = "41",
pages = "3145--3165",
journal = "Climate Dynamics",
issn = "0930-7575",
number = "11-12",

}

On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia. / White, Christopher J.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; Cechet, Robert P.; Corney, Stuart P.; Grose, Michael R.; Holz, Gregory K.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

In: Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, No. 11-12, 31.12.2013, p. 3145-3165.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia

AU - White, Christopher J.

AU - McInnes, Kathleen L.

AU - Cechet, Robert P.

AU - Corney, Stuart P.

AU - Grose, Michael R.

AU - Holz, Gregory K.

AU - Katzfey, Jack J.

AU - Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

PY - 2013/12/31

Y1 - 2013/12/31

N2 - The ability of an ensemble of six GCMs, downscaled to a 0.1° lat/lon grid using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model over Tasmania, Australia, to simulate observed extreme temperature and precipitation climatologies and statewide trends is assessed for 1961-2009 using a suite of extreme indices. The downscaled simulations have high skill in reproducing extreme temperatures, with the majority of models reproducing the statewide averaged sign and magnitude of recent observed trends of increasing warm days and warm nights and decreasing frost days. The warm spell duration index is however underestimated, while variance is generally overrepresented in the extreme temperature range across most regions. The simulations show a lower level of skill in modelling the amplitude of the extreme precipitation indices such as very wet days, but simulate the observed spatial patterns and variability. In general, simulations of dry extreme precipitation indices are underestimated in dryer areas and wet extremes indices are underestimated in wetter areas. Using two SRES emissions scenarios, the simulations indicate a significant increase in warm nights compared to a slightly more moderate increase in warm days, and an increase in maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation intensities interspersed with longer consecutive dry spells across Tasmania during the twenty-first century.

AB - The ability of an ensemble of six GCMs, downscaled to a 0.1° lat/lon grid using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model over Tasmania, Australia, to simulate observed extreme temperature and precipitation climatologies and statewide trends is assessed for 1961-2009 using a suite of extreme indices. The downscaled simulations have high skill in reproducing extreme temperatures, with the majority of models reproducing the statewide averaged sign and magnitude of recent observed trends of increasing warm days and warm nights and decreasing frost days. The warm spell duration index is however underestimated, while variance is generally overrepresented in the extreme temperature range across most regions. The simulations show a lower level of skill in modelling the amplitude of the extreme precipitation indices such as very wet days, but simulate the observed spatial patterns and variability. In general, simulations of dry extreme precipitation indices are underestimated in dryer areas and wet extremes indices are underestimated in wetter areas. Using two SRES emissions scenarios, the simulations indicate a significant increase in warm nights compared to a slightly more moderate increase in warm days, and an increase in maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation intensities interspersed with longer consecutive dry spells across Tasmania during the twenty-first century.

KW - Australian climate

KW - climate change

KW - extremes

KW - observations

KW - projections

KW - regional climate models

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84888028449&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s00382-013-1718-8

DO - 10.1007/s00382-013-1718-8

M3 - Article

VL - 41

SP - 3145

EP - 3165

JO - Climate Dynamics

T2 - Climate Dynamics

JF - Climate Dynamics

SN - 0930-7575

IS - 11-12

ER -