### Abstract

Language | English |
---|---|

Pages | 101-126 |

Number of pages | 26 |

Journal | Manchester School |

Volume | 83 |

Issue number | 1 |

Early online date | 27 Mar 2014 |

DOIs | |

Publication status | Published - Jan 2015 |

### Fingerprint

### Keywords

- okun's law
- meta analysis
- Okun's law coefficient
- OLC

### Cite this

*Manchester School*,

*83*(1), 101-126. https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12057

}

*Manchester School*, vol. 83, no. 1, pp. 101-126. https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12057

**Okun's Law - a meta analysis.** / Perman, Roger; Stephen, Gaetan; Tavéra , Christophe.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

TY - JOUR

T1 - Okun's Law - a meta analysis

AU - Perman, Roger

AU - Stephen, Gaetan

AU - Tavéra , Christophe

N1 - This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Perman, Roger.,Stephan, Gaetan., Tavéra, Christophe. (2015), Okun's Law—a Meta-analysis., Manchester School, 83 (1), p101-126, which has been published in final form at 10.1111/manc.12057. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

PY - 2015/1

Y1 - 2015/1

N2 - his paper seeks to identify whether there is a representative empirical Okun's law coefficient (OLC) and to measure its size. We carry out a meta-regression analysis on a sample of 269 estimates of the OLC to uncover reasons for differences in empirical results and to estimate the ‘true’ OLC. On statistical (and other) grounds, we find it appropriate to investigate two separate subsamples, using respectively (some measure of) unemployment or output as dependent variable. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of type II publication bias in both subsamples, but a type I bias is present only among the papers using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Second, after correction for publication bias, authentic and statistically significant OLC effects are present in both subsamples. Third, bias-corrected estimated true OLCs are significantly lower (in absolute value) with models using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Using a bivariate MRA approach, the estimated true effects are −0.25 for the unemployment subsample and −0.61 for the output subsample; with a multivariate MRA methodology, the estimated true effects are −0.40 and −1.02 for the unemployment and the output subsamples respectively.

AB - his paper seeks to identify whether there is a representative empirical Okun's law coefficient (OLC) and to measure its size. We carry out a meta-regression analysis on a sample of 269 estimates of the OLC to uncover reasons for differences in empirical results and to estimate the ‘true’ OLC. On statistical (and other) grounds, we find it appropriate to investigate two separate subsamples, using respectively (some measure of) unemployment or output as dependent variable. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of type II publication bias in both subsamples, but a type I bias is present only among the papers using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Second, after correction for publication bias, authentic and statistically significant OLC effects are present in both subsamples. Third, bias-corrected estimated true OLCs are significantly lower (in absolute value) with models using some measure of unemployment as the dependent variable. Using a bivariate MRA approach, the estimated true effects are −0.25 for the unemployment subsample and −0.61 for the output subsample; with a multivariate MRA methodology, the estimated true effects are −0.40 and −1.02 for the unemployment and the output subsamples respectively.

KW - okun's law

KW - meta analysis

KW - Okun's law coefficient

KW - OLC

UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/manc.12057/abstract

U2 - 10.1111/manc.12057

DO - 10.1111/manc.12057

M3 - Article

VL - 83

SP - 101

EP - 126

JO - Manchester School

T2 - Manchester School

JF - Manchester School

SN - 1463-6786

IS - 1

ER -