Nowcasting the Scottish Economy

Research output: Working paper

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Abstract

The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, now-casts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Number of pages33
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2014

Keywords

  • nowcasting
  • mixed frequency data
  • regional macroeconomics

Cite this

Allan, G., Koop, G., McIntyre, S., & Smith, P. (2014). Nowcasting the Scottish Economy. University of Strathclyde.