Nowcasting the Scottish Economy

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, now-casts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.
LanguageEnglish
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Number of pages33
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2014

Fingerprint

Nowcasting
GDP growth
Macroeconomic variables
Industrial production
Government
Nontraditional
Scotland
Politicians
Predictors

Keywords

  • nowcasting
  • mixed frequency data
  • regional macroeconomics

Cite this

Allan, G., Koop, G., McIntyre, S., & Smith, P. (2014). Nowcasting the Scottish Economy. University of Strathclyde.
Allan, Grant ; Koop, Gary ; McIntyre, Stuart ; Smith, Paul. / Nowcasting the Scottish Economy. University of Strathclyde, 2014.
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Allan, G, Koop, G, McIntyre, S & Smith, P 2014 'Nowcasting the Scottish Economy' University of Strathclyde.

Nowcasting the Scottish Economy. / Allan, Grant; Koop, Gary; McIntyre, Stuart; Smith, Paul.

University of Strathclyde, 2014.

Research output: Working paper

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AU - Koop, Gary

AU - McIntyre, Stuart

AU - Smith, Paul

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N2 - The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, now-casts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

AB - The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, now-casts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

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KW - mixed frequency data

KW - regional macroeconomics

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Allan G, Koop G, McIntyre S, Smith P. Nowcasting the Scottish Economy. University of Strathclyde. 2014 Nov.