Nowcasting the Scottish economy

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government o!ce region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

Conference

ConferenceWestern Regional Science Association
CountryUnited States
CityTucson
Period15/02/1518/02/15

Fingerprint

Nowcasting
GDP growth
Macroeconomic variables
Industrial production
Government
Nontraditional
Scotland
Politicians
Predictors

Keywords

  • Scottish economic activity
  • nowcasting
  • Scottish economy

Cite this

McIntyre, S., Allan, G., Koop, G., & Smith, P. (2015). Nowcasting the Scottish economy. Paper presented at Western Regional Science Association, Tucson, United States.
McIntyre, Stuart ; Allan, Grant ; Koop, Gary ; Smith, Paul. / Nowcasting the Scottish economy. Paper presented at Western Regional Science Association, Tucson, United States.
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McIntyre, S, Allan, G, Koop, G & Smith, P 2015, 'Nowcasting the Scottish economy' Paper presented at Western Regional Science Association, Tucson, United States, 15/02/15 - 18/02/15, .

Nowcasting the Scottish economy. / McIntyre, Stuart; Allan, Grant; Koop, Gary; Smith, Paul.

2015. Paper presented at Western Regional Science Association, Tucson, United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

TY - CONF

T1 - Nowcasting the Scottish economy

AU - McIntyre, Stuart

AU - Allan, Grant

AU - Koop, Gary

AU - Smith, Paul

PY - 2015/2

Y1 - 2015/2

N2 - The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government o!ce region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

AB - The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government o!ce region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

KW - Scottish economic activity

KW - nowcasting

KW - Scottish economy

UR - http://www.wrsaonline.org/newsite/

M3 - Paper

ER -

McIntyre S, Allan G, Koop G, Smith P. Nowcasting the Scottish economy. 2015. Paper presented at Western Regional Science Association, Tucson, United States.