Nowcasting the Scottish Economy

Grant Allan; Gary Koop; Stuart McIntyre; Paul Smith

Nowcasting the Scottish Economy

Grant Allan, Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre, Paul Smith

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

Abstract

The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government o!ce region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

Original language	English
Publication status	Published - 21 Aug 2014
Event	RSAI:BIS - Regional Science Association International: British and Irish Section, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom Duration: 19 Aug 2014 → 21 Aug 2014

Conference

Conference	RSAI:BIS
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
City	Aberystwyth
Period	19/08/14 → 21/08/14

Keywords

Scottish economy
nowcasting

Cite this

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title = "Nowcasting the Scottish Economy",

abstract = "The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government o!ce region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.",

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T1 - Nowcasting the Scottish Economy

AU - Allan, Grant

AU - Koop, Gary

AU - McIntyre, Stuart

AU - Smith, Paul

PY - 2014/8/21

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N2 - The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government o!ce region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

AB - The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government o!ce region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

KW - Scottish economy

KW - nowcasting

UR - http://www.rsai-bis.org/previous-conferences.html

M3 - Paper

T2 - RSAI:BIS

Y2 - 19 August 2014 through 21 August 2014

ER -

Nowcasting the Scottish Economy

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

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