Networks of violence: predicting conflict in Nigeria

Max Gallop, Shahryar Minhas, Cassy Dorff

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Civil conflicts are complex: multiple warring parties compete for control of territory both against each other and the government. These processes are often dynamic; changing over time and space. In this study, we embrace these complexities through a network based approach. By considering important relational patterns, such as reciprocity and transitivity, and tying them together with existing theoretical developments in the conflict processes literature, we answer the question of 'who fights whom and when' during civil conflict. Further, using the case of Nigeria, we offer novel theoretical insights about how the entrance of a new, aggressive actor can decisively alter the trajectory of conflict. In addition, we show that our approach is better at predicting 'who fights whom and when' in an out-of-sample context than extant approaches.
LanguageEnglish
JournalJournal of Politics
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 9 Nov 2018

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Nigeria
violence
reciprocity

Keywords

  • civil conflict
  • network analysis
  • rebellion
  • Nigeria

Cite this

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Networks of violence : predicting conflict in Nigeria. / Gallop, Max; Minhas, Shahryar; Dorff, Cassy.

In: Journal of Politics, 09.11.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T2 - Journal of Politics

AU - Gallop, Max

AU - Minhas, Shahryar

AU - Dorff, Cassy

PY - 2018/11/9

Y1 - 2018/11/9

N2 - Civil conflicts are complex: multiple warring parties compete for control of territory both against each other and the government. These processes are often dynamic; changing over time and space. In this study, we embrace these complexities through a network based approach. By considering important relational patterns, such as reciprocity and transitivity, and tying them together with existing theoretical developments in the conflict processes literature, we answer the question of 'who fights whom and when' during civil conflict. Further, using the case of Nigeria, we offer novel theoretical insights about how the entrance of a new, aggressive actor can decisively alter the trajectory of conflict. In addition, we show that our approach is better at predicting 'who fights whom and when' in an out-of-sample context than extant approaches.

AB - Civil conflicts are complex: multiple warring parties compete for control of territory both against each other and the government. These processes are often dynamic; changing over time and space. In this study, we embrace these complexities through a network based approach. By considering important relational patterns, such as reciprocity and transitivity, and tying them together with existing theoretical developments in the conflict processes literature, we answer the question of 'who fights whom and when' during civil conflict. Further, using the case of Nigeria, we offer novel theoretical insights about how the entrance of a new, aggressive actor can decisively alter the trajectory of conflict. In addition, we show that our approach is better at predicting 'who fights whom and when' in an out-of-sample context than extant approaches.

KW - civil conflict

KW - network analysis

KW - rebellion

KW - Nigeria

UR - https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/toc/jop/current

M3 - Article

JO - Journal of Politics

JF - Journal of Politics

SN - 0022-3816

ER -