Natural hazards in Australia: floods

Fiona Johnson, Christopher J. White, Albert van Dijk, Marie Ekstrom, Jason P. Evans, Dörte Jakob, Anthony S. Kiem, Michael Leonard, Alexandra Rouillard, Seth Westra

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

32 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

Floods are caused by a number of interacting factors, making it remarkably difficult to explain changes in flood hazard. This paper reviews the current understanding of historical trends and variability in flood hazard across Australia. Links between flood and rainfall trends cannot be made due to the influence of climate processes over a number of spatial and temporal scales as well as landscape changes that affect the catchment response. There are also still considerable uncertainties in future rainfall projections, particularly for sub-daily extreme rainfall events. This is in addition to the inherent uncertainty in hydrological modelling such as antecedent conditions and feedback mechanisms. Research questions are posed based on the current state of knowledge. These include a need for high-resolution climate modelling studies and efforts in compiling and analysing databases of sub-daily rainfall and flood records. Finally there is a need to develop modelling frameworks that can deal with the interaction between climate processes at different spatio-temporal scales, so that historical flood trends can be better explained and future flood behaviour understood.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)21-35
Number of pages15
JournalClimatic Change
Volume139
Issue number1
Early online date11 May 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Nov 2016

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Keywords

  • flood hazard
  • Australia
  • rainfall trends
  • landscape change
  • climate processes
  • historical flood trends

Cite this

Johnson, F., White, C. J., van Dijk, A., Ekstrom, M., Evans, J. P., Jakob, D., ... Westra, S. (2016). Natural hazards in Australia: floods. Climatic Change, 139(1), 21-35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1689-y